{
  "docId": "019f6b8f-3688-75f9-b14b-82f50c3e0c34",
  "docSlug": "jarvis-mckinsey-forecasting-hca-healthcare-ebitda-growth",
  "documentTitle": "McKinsey Forecasting HCA Healthcare EBITDA Growth",
  "authorId": "mckinsey-forecasting-hca-healthcare-ebitda-growth",
  "authorName": null,
  "documentKindSlug": "consulting-deck",
  "documentKindLabel": "Consulting deck",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "strategy_consulting",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Strategy consulting",
  "presentationDate": null,
  "orientation": null,
  "aspectRatio": null,
  "pageNumber": 18,
  "pageCount": 80,
  "prevPage": 17,
  "nextPage": 19,
  "slideType": "industry_trends",
  "function": "analyze_data",
  "density": "balanced",
  "nDataPoints": 14,
  "notes": "The chart compares historical growth (1996-2008) with a projected average (2009).",
  "elementsJson": null,
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019f6b8f-3688-75f9-b14b-82f50c3e0c34/18",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019f6b8f-3688-75f9-b14b-82f50c3e0c34",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019f6b8f-3688-75f9-b14b-82f50c3e0c34.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019f6b8f-3688-75f9-b14b-82f50c3e0c34#slide-18",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.3,
        "w": 0.25,
        "x": 0.72,
        "y": 0.38
      },
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Medicare hospital spending per enrollee is projected to grow at 3.8% over the next 3 years. Base-case projection set 3.8% CAGR for that time frame, with small range for optimistic/pessimistic",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "c51e79e1-9d81-43e6-addd-e832795ff718",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.55,
        "w": 0.6,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.25
      },
      "kind": "chart",
      "text": "Historical and projected growth in CMS hospital costs",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bar-vertical",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "8c28e64d-083f-418e-ba3d-f6ed31f0bd90",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.03,
        "w": 0.3,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.95
      },
      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "Source: CMS; U.S. Census; team analysis",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "source-note",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "c03013fd-828a-4cf6-8fe8-9d167a58ce8f",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.03,
        "w": 0.6,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.18
      },
      "kind": "subtitle",
      "text": "Growth in CMS projected hospital cost per enrollee, 1995-2008",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "description",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "e67ec4b5-a2e4-491d-882e-621e607c777b",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.08,
        "w": 0.9,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.03
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "CMS INPATIENT PAYMENTS IN MEDICARE WILL LIKELY BE LOWER GOING FORWARD",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "833be4e1-8b8c-4f9c-bebe-60c1d93ca0d4",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [],
  "frameworks": [],
  "arcBeats": [
    {
      "to": 20,
      "from": 11,
      "beatId": "026448c0-65be-478a-8b70-6435ff3c87fe",
      "arcName": "The Consultant's Gambit",
      "arcSlug": "consultants-gambit",
      "beatName": "Evidence & Proof",
      "beatSlug": "consultants-gambit-evidence-proof",
      "evidence": "The document provides evidence and proof to support the forecast, including data tables and financial analysis.",
      "position": 2,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "parentBeatName": "Evidence",
      "parentBeatSlug": "evidence"
    }
  ],
  "loops": [
    {
      "to": 20,
      "from": 5,
      "name": "Pattern Hunter",
      "slug": "02-pattern-hunter",
      "bestFor": "Time-pressed audiences, building consensus, when data is strong",
      "matchId": "32558b28-b5d8-46bf-8228-fffd66b3c446",
      "evidence": "The document analyzes patterns in HCA Healthcare's financials and industry trends, including changes in payor class mix and service line mix.",
      "position": 0,
      "objective": "Identify patterns in HCA Healthcare's financials and industry trends",
      "structure": "Evidence A -> Evidence B -> Evidence C -> Pattern/Conclusion",
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "description": "Group multiple pieces of evidence that together point to a pattern or conclusion"
    }
  ],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}