{
  "docId": "019f6b8e-ef7a-751b-a17d-9ea3c4cc3b3d",
  "docSlug": "jarvis-ancora-forward-air-letter-february-2021",
  "documentTitle": "Ancora Forward Air Letter February 2021",
  "authorId": "ancora-forward-air-letter-february-2021",
  "authorName": null,
  "documentKindSlug": "document",
  "documentKindLabel": "Document",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "independent_analyst",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Independent analyst",
  "presentationDate": "2021-02-01 00:00:00",
  "orientation": null,
  "aspectRatio": null,
  "pageNumber": 6,
  "pageCount": 18,
  "prevPage": 5,
  "nextPage": 7,
  "slideType": "problem_statement",
  "function": "frame_problem",
  "density": "dense",
  "nDataPoints": 9,
  "notes": "Includes a direct quote from Mr. Schmitt at the 2019 Stephens Investment Conference.",
  "elementsJson": null,
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019f6b8e-ef7a-751b-a17d-9ea3c4cc3b3d/6",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019f6b8e-ef7a-751b-a17d-9ea3c4cc3b3d",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019f6b8e-ef7a-751b-a17d-9ea3c4cc3b3d.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019f6b8e-ef7a-751b-a17d-9ea3c4cc3b3d#slide-6",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.07,
        "w": 0.2,
        "x": 0.54,
        "y": 0.14
      },
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "EBIT per LTL ton has decreased ~15% since 2011",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "94452b78-d511-4be7-b7ef-f1f4e3656a1a",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.25,
        "w": 0.5,
        "x": 0.25,
        "y": 0.15
      },
      "kind": "chart",
      "text": "Bar chart showing EBIT per LTL ton from 2011 to 2019 with a downward trend line.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bar-vertical",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "38ff1b0c-bdcb-4024-bf22-fd8f98e8888a",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.07,
        "w": 0.72,
        "x": 0.14,
        "y": 0.47
      },
      "kind": "list",
      "text": "1) Negative mix shift in purchased transportation spend\n2) Deterioration in productivity metrics\n3) Failure to take price increases despite other LTLs successfully doing so",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bullet",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "e7459389-a4a4-4526-b321-1d68b7952942",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.02,
        "w": 0.3,
        "x": 0.17,
        "y": 0.39
      },
      "kind": "other",
      "text": "Source: Company Filings and Ancora Estimates.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "source-note",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "04f95601-c14b-4ef0-bd14-9314b55c2bcc",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.1,
        "w": 0.78,
        "x": 0.11,
        "y": 0.56
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "From 2009 to 2019, Forward Air's purchased transportation spend mix has shifted from a 70/30 split between owner-operators and third-party carriers to a nearly 50/50 split.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "description",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "dcb4d106-9286-4158-9dea-5ebf24b70484",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.15,
        "w": 0.78,
        "x": 0.11,
        "y": 0.69
      },
      "kind": "quote",
      "text": "In the toughest stretches of time, we had 20%, 30% or so outside purchase transportation... It's more expensive. The service expectation, execution may be a bit more inconsistent... So you have like a typical vicious cycle...",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "pull-quote",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "4475f2e4-1954-4a58-be43-b95ab1f29fd2",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.02,
        "w": 0.42,
        "x": 0.29,
        "y": 0.11
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Core Expedited LTL EBIT per LTL Ton (2011-2019)",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "dc1f77e3-a18e-41c4-b665-14953615b7bb",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.02,
        "w": 0.52,
        "x": 0.11,
        "y": 0.53
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Negative Mix Shift in Purchased Transportation Spend",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "subtitle",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "1566af6e-f71a-47a7-8a1e-836cf0b8a9df",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [],
  "frameworks": [],
  "arcBeats": [
    {
      "to": 6,
      "from": 2,
      "beatId": "e4ac6f1f-451b-4ac6-983e-ebfba8855444",
      "arcName": "Problem-Agitate-Solution",
      "arcSlug": "problem-agitate-solution",
      "beatName": "Problem",
      "beatSlug": "problem-agitate-solution-problem-identify-pain",
      "evidence": "The document identifies the problems faced by Forward Air, including declining financials and underperformance.",
      "position": 0,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "parentBeatName": "Complication",
      "parentBeatSlug": "complication"
    }
  ],
  "loops": [
    {
      "to": 6,
      "from": 2,
      "name": "Cost Of Inaction",
      "slug": "27-cost-of-inaction",
      "bestFor": "Urgent budget requests, compliance, risk mitigation",
      "matchId": "ec331a3c-fea8-4fc9-9f2c-7b8f7b2108c9",
      "evidence": "The document presents data on the current underperformance and declining financials.",
      "position": 0,
      "objective": "What are the costs of not changing the current business model?",
      "structure": "The Status Quo -> The Hidden Costs Accumulating -> The Future State of Inaction -> The Tipping Point",
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "description": "Quantify what happens if the audience does nothing"
    }
  ],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}