{
  "docId": "019f6b8e-ef7a-751b-a17d-9ea3c4cc3b3d",
  "docSlug": "jarvis-ancora-forward-air-letter-february-2021",
  "documentTitle": "Ancora Forward Air Letter February 2021",
  "authorId": "ancora-forward-air-letter-february-2021",
  "authorName": null,
  "documentKindSlug": "document",
  "documentKindLabel": "Document",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "independent_analyst",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Independent analyst",
  "presentationDate": "2021-02-01 00:00:00",
  "orientation": null,
  "aspectRatio": null,
  "pageNumber": 4,
  "pageCount": 18,
  "prevPage": 3,
  "nextPage": 5,
  "slideType": "appendix_data",
  "function": "analyze_data",
  "density": "dense",
  "nDataPoints": 30,
  "notes": "The slide highlights a degradation in Operating Ratio (OR) despite management's stated expectations of mid-80% performance.",
  "elementsJson": null,
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019f6b8e-ef7a-751b-a17d-9ea3c4cc3b3d/4",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019f6b8e-ef7a-751b-a17d-9ea3c4cc3b3d",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019f6b8e-ef7a-751b-a17d-9ea3c4cc3b3d.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019f6b8e-ef7a-751b-a17d-9ea3c4cc3b3d#slide-4",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.05,
        "w": 0.2,
        "x": 0.28,
        "y": 0.51
      },
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "OR has declined ~350 bps since 2014 and ~675 bps since 2011",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "92b5db85-688a-4abf-ac91-06f750ced0c8",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.25,
        "w": 0.7,
        "x": 0.15,
        "y": 0.15
      },
      "kind": "chart",
      "text": "Revenue and EBIT bar chart",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bar-grouped",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "0b70e465-1458-4aa8-82ba-17ddeb8ea84a",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.25,
        "w": 0.7,
        "x": 0.15,
        "y": 0.5
      },
      "kind": "chart",
      "text": "Operating Ratio bar chart",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bar-vertical",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "55d233c6-8ab6-4bd5-85a4-ecd2a2daafad",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.25,
        "w": 0.7,
        "x": 0.15,
        "y": 0.15
      },
      "kind": "chart",
      "text": "EBIT Margin line chart",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "line",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "6ab75d3c-c52b-4867-8005-2dc26ccac60c",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.1,
        "w": 0.8,
        "x": 0.1,
        "y": 0.8
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "This continued degradation in the OR is confounding particularly considering management has publicly stated that there is no reason why the core Expedited LTL business should not be operating in the low to mid-80% OR range.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "3f9ac77a-3f27-4c89-898b-86bbdb046d37",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.03,
        "w": 0.6,
        "x": 0.2,
        "y": 0.1
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Core Expedited LTL Revenue, EBIT, and EBIT Margins (2011-2019, LTM)",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "17d5f5db-d3bf-417c-97f3-aebd1edbef3e",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.03,
        "w": 0.6,
        "x": 0.2,
        "y": 0.45
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Core Expedited LTL Operating Ratio (2011-2019, LTM)",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "72cba7cb-6862-4a55-b134-7cb50218a7e0",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [],
  "frameworks": [],
  "arcBeats": [
    {
      "to": 6,
      "from": 2,
      "beatId": "e4ac6f1f-451b-4ac6-983e-ebfba8855444",
      "arcName": "Problem-Agitate-Solution",
      "arcSlug": "problem-agitate-solution",
      "beatName": "Problem",
      "beatSlug": "problem-agitate-solution-problem-identify-pain",
      "evidence": "The document identifies the problems faced by Forward Air, including declining financials and underperformance.",
      "position": 0,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "parentBeatName": "Complication",
      "parentBeatSlug": "complication"
    }
  ],
  "loops": [
    {
      "to": 6,
      "from": 2,
      "name": "Cost Of Inaction",
      "slug": "27-cost-of-inaction",
      "bestFor": "Urgent budget requests, compliance, risk mitigation",
      "matchId": "ec331a3c-fea8-4fc9-9f2c-7b8f7b2108c9",
      "evidence": "The document presents data on the current underperformance and declining financials.",
      "position": 0,
      "objective": "What are the costs of not changing the current business model?",
      "structure": "The Status Quo -> The Hidden Costs Accumulating -> The Future State of Inaction -> The Tipping Point",
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "description": "Quantify what happens if the audience does nothing"
    }
  ],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}