{
  "docId": "019f6b8e-ef7a-751b-a17d-9ea3c4cc3b3d",
  "docSlug": "jarvis-ancora-forward-air-letter-february-2021",
  "documentTitle": "Ancora Forward Air Letter February 2021",
  "authorId": "ancora-forward-air-letter-february-2021",
  "authorName": null,
  "documentKindSlug": "document",
  "documentKindLabel": "Document",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "independent_analyst",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Independent analyst",
  "presentationDate": "2021-02-01 00:00:00",
  "orientation": null,
  "aspectRatio": null,
  "pageNumber": 13,
  "pageCount": 18,
  "prevPage": 12,
  "nextPage": 14,
  "slideType": "peer_benchmark",
  "function": "compare_peers",
  "density": "dense",
  "nDataPoints": 5,
  "notes": "The slide uses a line chart to visualize stock performance divergence over a 12-year period.",
  "elementsJson": null,
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019f6b8e-ef7a-751b-a17d-9ea3c4cc3b3d/13",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019f6b8e-ef7a-751b-a17d-9ea3c4cc3b3d",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019f6b8e-ef7a-751b-a17d-9ea3c4cc3b3d.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019f6b8e-ef7a-751b-a17d-9ea3c4cc3b3d#slide-13",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.35,
        "w": 0.7,
        "x": 0.15,
        "y": 0.21
      },
      "kind": "chart",
      "text": "Line chart showing stock performance of FWRD, ODFL, SAIA, XPO, and JBHT from 2008 to 2020.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "line",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "c1884170-bcf8-41aa-a2a4-2a68fe3c9d91",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.03,
        "w": 0.4,
        "x": 0.3,
        "y": 0.51
      },
      "kind": "legend",
      "text": "FWRD, ODFL, SAIA, XPO, JBHT",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "legend",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "50a5173f-cd18-487c-9c9a-8d9e307c3cbb",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.08,
        "w": 0.78,
        "x": 0.11,
        "y": 0.61
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "Forward Air's FY 2020 results have substantially underperformed LTL peers as the core Expedited LTL OR has deteriorated ~400 bps year-over-year with EBITDA down ~35% year-over-year and diluted EPS (ex-Pool Distribution) down ~25% year-over-year.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "0687f69c-e0f5-440d-9d7d-b197719f502a",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.08,
        "w": 0.78,
        "x": 0.11,
        "y": 0.69
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "The COVID-related dislocation in the freight markets created tremendous challenges; yet, just as many, if not more, opportunities for profitable growth in 2020. The financial metrics highlighted below speak for themselves and suggest, we believe, that Forward Air's current management is not getting the job done from an execution perspective.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "cc3789f7-ff84-421f-891e-da6b871e96f0",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.02,
        "w": 0.6,
        "x": 0.11,
        "y": 0.58
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Subpar Recent Results Suggest Management Execution Remains Inadequate",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "action-title",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "1245d6e4-daa2-4d16-a089-520e6fbda43b",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.02,
        "w": 0.62,
        "x": 0.19,
        "y": 0.15
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Historical Indexed Stock Price Comparison – Forward Air vs Peers (2008-2020)",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "b7e3cc33-d4d3-4de0-8de9-aa2ae340068e",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [],
  "frameworks": [
    {
      "name": "comparison_frame",
      "slug": null,
      "matchId": "2ecb7d5f-6289-4677-96a0-d0d7340601e2",
      "evidence": "Comparing stock performance against peers to justify management change.",
      "confidence": 0.9
    }
  ],
  "arcBeats": [
    {
      "to": 14,
      "from": 7,
      "beatId": "70167d68-8931-40e3-b2a9-16962a1ef242",
      "arcName": "Problem-Agitate-Solution",
      "arcSlug": "problem-agitate-solution",
      "beatName": "Agitate",
      "beatSlug": "problem-agitate-solution-agitate-make-it-worse",
      "evidence": "The document presents data to agitate the problems, including comparisons to peers and historical performance.",
      "position": 1,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "parentBeatName": "Development",
      "parentBeatSlug": "development"
    }
  ],
  "loops": [
    {
      "to": 14,
      "from": 10,
      "name": "Benchmark Gap",
      "slug": "39-benchmark-gap",
      "bestFor": "Performance improvement, competitive analysis, target setting",
      "matchId": "c2231496-6b24-401d-abda-f76b623bbc0e",
      "evidence": "The document presents comparisons to peers and industry benchmarks.",
      "position": 1,
      "objective": "How does Forward Air's performance compare to peers?",
      "structure": "Our Performance -> Industry Average -> Best-in-Class -> The Gap = The Opportunity",
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "description": "Compare performance against best-in-class to quantify the opportunity"
    }
  ],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}