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  "documentTitle": "BP plc (BP)",
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  "authorName": "Giuseppe Bivona and Marco Taricco",
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  "presentationDate": "2024-09-25 00:00:00",
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  "notes": "The slide uses a bar chart to show peer performance and a line chart to show consensus stability to undermine management's stated reasons for the downgrade.",
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      "text": "BP's management just implicitly downgraded 2025E Ebitda towards consensus.",
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      "text": "BP 2025E Ebitda ($bn)",
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      "text": "EBITDA: $4bn",
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      "text": "The downgrade to the 2025 guidance was justified by changing assumptions underlying the guidance, in a very opaque manner.",
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      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "Q2 2024 results, Mr. Auchincloss very subtly (rectius: sneakily) guided for an Ebitda miss of $4bn, which at midpoint is an 8% miss versus the guidance.",
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      "text": "As you’ll be aware, 2025 Brent strip is at around $75 per barrel, and other commodities and prices, including refining margins, are under pressure. Were these prices to play out, the rule of thumb impact in 2025 would be around $4 billion – but that’s a price call that we don’t know at this stage. — BP Q2 2024 Earnings Call",
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      "text": "9 \"As you'll be aware, 2025 Brent strip is at around $75 per barrel...\" 10 Charts Source: Bloomberg data as of 18/09/2024",
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