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  "docSlug": "73d490b5bd52",
  "documentTitle": "Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac (FNMA / FMCC)",
  "authorId": "01_Pershing_Square",
  "authorName": "William Ackman",
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  "sourceTypeSlug": "activist_investor",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Activist investor",
  "presentationDate": "2014-05-05 00:00:00",
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  "notes": "The slide uses a causal chain to explain why guarantees issued during downturns are lower risk.",
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      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Guarantees issued during an economic downturn have a lower probability of default, a longer time period to default, lower severity upon default, and greater persistency, which increases the overall quality of the guarantee portfolio and de-risks the business model",
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      "text": "As dominant participants in the market, the GSEs have historically retained access to capital as other participants have been forced to exit. This has allowed them to expand their market share in economic downturns, when mortgage underwriting conditions are most favorable",
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      "text": "Economic downturns usually result in a decline in housing prices and a decrease in interest rates\nLower housing prices result in reduced loan-to-replacement cost ratios\nLower interest rates result in a lower mortgage payment burden\nLower initial interest rates decrease the probability of future prepayments",
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      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Guarantee Business Model: Low Risk (Cont.)",
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      "evidence": "The presentation proposes a solution to reform the GSEs, including increasing capital requirements and winding down their Fixed-Income Arbitrage business",
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      "structure": "The Old Way (Pain) -> The Moment of Change -> The New Way (Glory) -> The Measurable Delta",
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