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  "docSlug": "6e4856b01af3",
  "documentTitle": "Hong Kong Dollar / Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) (HKD)",
  "authorId": "01_Pershing_Square",
  "authorName": "Pershing Square Capital Management",
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  "presentationDate": "2011-09-14 00:00:00",
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  "notes": "The slide uses a table to contrast expected revaluation scenarios with market-implied probabilities to highlight a discrepancy.",
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      "text": "A revaluation will likely be in this range",
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      "text": "We think a revaluation is more likely than not, but the market price implies extremely low probabilities",
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      "text": "Because of the peg, HKD/USD volatility is very low",
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      "text": "We think a revaluation is more likely than not, but the market price implies extremely low probabilities",
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      "text": "We believe HKD call options should be priced based on expected value rather than volatility",
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      "text": "Implied Probability of Revaluation: 1.6%",
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      "text": "Expected Value = (Probability of Reval) X (Expected Amount of Reval)",
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      "text": "One Year, 7.50 Strike table showing Expected HKD Strengthening, Payoff, and Implied Probability of Revaluation",
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      "text": "The Market is Mispricing this Option",
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