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  "documentTitle": "Fortune Brands Home & Security (FBHS)",
  "authorId": "01_Pershing_Square",
  "authorName": "William Ackman",
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  "sourceTypeSlug": "activist_investor",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Activist investor",
  "presentationDate": "2011-10-18 00:00:00",
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  "notes": "The slide uses a simple arithmetic model to project recovery timelines based on current excess supply and assumed housing starts.",
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      "text": "Although the pace of the housing recovery is difficult to predict, we believe a recovery over the next several years is highly likely",
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      "text": "At a normalized level of housing demand: Excess housing supply could be eliminated in roughly 2.5 years if housing starts remain at ~600k",
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      "text": "At the depressed level of housing demand (~1m): Excess supply could be eliminated in ~ 5.5 years if housing starts remain at ~600k",
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      "text": "We believe that the current level of excess supply is ~2mm to 2.5mm housing units and normalized housing demand is approximately 1.5mm",
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      "text": "What a Housing Recovery Might Look Like",
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