{ "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b9b-08868f8ea0fc", "docSlug": "868e12a88c8c", "documentTitle": "Ceres Power Holdings plc (CWR)", "authorId": "62_Grizzly_Research", "authorName": "Grizzly Research", "documentKindSlug": "research-note", "documentKindLabel": "Research note", "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller", "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller", "presentationDate": "2025-12-11 00:00:00", "orientation": "portrait", "aspectRatio": 0.77272725, "pageNumber": 22, "pageCount": 26, "prevPage": 21, "nextPage": 23, "slideType": "problem_statement", "function": "diagnose_problem", "density": "dense", "nDataPoints": 0, "notes": "This is a short-seller research report page focusing on business model critique.", "elementsJson": [ "paragraph", "footnote" ], "metadataConfidence": 1, "imagePath": null, "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9b-08868f8ea0fc/22", "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9b-08868f8ea0fc", "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9b-08868f8ea0fc.json", "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9b-08868f8ea0fc#slide-22", "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Ceres is essentially asking partners to accept technical, commercial, and financial risk.", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Visual emphasis", "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-70f9-71ae-a677-8f9e6f901775", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.58, "x": 0.31, "y": 0.83 }, "kind": "disclaimer", "text": "THE REPORT AND ALL STATEMENTS CONTAINED HEREIN ARE THE OPINIONS OF GRIZZLY RESEARCH, AND ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF FACT. AS OF THE PUBLICATION DATE OF THIS REPORT, GRIZZLY RESEARCH (POSSIBLY ALONG WITH OR THROUGH OUR MEMBERS, PARTNERS, AFFILIATES, EMPLOYEES, AND/OR CONSULTANTS) ALONG WITH OUR CLIENTS AND/OR INVESTORS HAS A DIRECT OR INDIRECT SHORT POSITION IN THE STOCK (AND/OR OPTIONS, SWAPS, AND OTHER DERIVATIVES RELATED TO ONE OR MORE OF THESE SECURITIES) OF THE COMPANY COVERED HEREIN, AND THEREFORE STANDS TO REALIZE SIGNIFICANT GAINS IN THE EVENT THAT THE PRICE OF CERES' STOCK DECLINES. THEREFORE, USE GRIZZLY RESEARCH'S RESEARCH AT YOUR OWN RISK. YOU SHOULD DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH AND DUE DILIGENCE BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION WITH RESPECT TO THE SECURITIES COVERED HEREIN. THE OPINIONS EXPRESSED IN THIS REPORT ARE NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE NOR SHOULD THEY BE CONSTRUED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE OR ANY RECOMMENDATION OF ANY KIND. FOLLOWING PUBLICATION OF THIS REPORT, WE MAY CONTINUE TRANSACTING IN THE SECURITIES COVERED THEREIN, AND WE MAY BE LONG, SHORT, OR NEUTRAL AT ANY TIME HEREAFTER REGARDLESS OF OUR INITIAL OPINION. © 2025 GRIZZLY RESEARCH LLC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "b221d079-999c-476d-867f-3f834b9cf52d", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.55, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.26 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "According to experts and former employees we interviewed, Ceres' business model is fundamentally flawed on numerous fronts. From the beginning, Ceres was described as a “university science project with no target market or commercial application” and also as a “hammer looking for nail”. Ceres has changed their business model entirely multiple times after the past ones failed miserably, lacking demand and feasibility. For example, their early commercial trial at residential CHP almost sent the company to bankruptcy, forcing the company to shift its focus entirely and commercially start from “zero”. Another issue we mentioned earlier in this report and that was pointed out by multiple experts is the licensing business model. According to them, the licensing business model does not match the technology and its market for multiple reasons. The most important one is that the SOFC technology developed by Ceres is an advanced form of technology and therefore highly complex. After shifting the risk to the licensee that has to develop the system around the cells or the stacks, even though Ceres will provide engineering support to the licensee, it still bears an enormous amount of risk. Indeed, even though Ceres also offers system IP, the licensee still has to do the heavy work. The licensee has to outlay the capital necessary for the additional research & development, testing, manufacturing and keeps the risk of the technology not being up to their standard, or the developed product not attaining the sufficient market success. Moreover, the systems built around Ceres’ technology might yield different/inconsistent performance that could disappoint. Everything mentioned here takes years to achieve, delaying royalties paid to Ceres as well as a risk of failure, which happened in most cases. On top of this, if everything successfully happens, the licensee still has to pay royalties to Ceres, which adds significant pressure to their margin and commercial prospects. All of these combined reveal a flawed business model, with heightened risks of delays and failures, as well as increased difficulty in finding new licensees. Ceres is essentially asking partners to accept technical, commercial, and financial risk.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "f7b3ab5d-e9c5-41bc-b8e0-1d76a83b40b2", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "university science project with no target market or commercial application — Former employees/experts", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Authority citation", "toolSlug": "authority-citation", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-70f9-71ae-a677-91d77914f300", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.21 }, "kind": "title", "text": "A Fundamentally Flawed Business Model", "attrs": null, "subkind": "action-title", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "da565784-1c70-4eff-b162-91d0414d1d37", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.13 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Ceres Power Fuels Investors' Illusions With Misleading Promises", "attrs": null, "subkind": "headline", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "eda52267-3ce0-4cf9-91e9-b101ade57e81", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [ { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solve (PAS)", "slug": "problem-agitate-solve-pas", "agent": "Storyteller", "layer": "slide", "matchId": "5ee79857-b0c9-4703-be83-ab8099da08c7", "evidence": "According to experts and former employees we interviewed, Ceres' business model is fundamentally flawed on numerous fronts.", "confidence": 0.6 } ], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 22, "from": 22, "beatId": "4d013031-2a22-480f-b6b2-1f509f169f52", "arcName": "Overcoming the Monster", "arcSlug": "overcoming-monster", "beatName": "Problem Statement", "beatSlug": null, "evidence": "Ceres Power Fuels Investors’ Illusions With Misleading Promises", "position": 3, "confidence": 0.8, "parentBeatName": null, "parentBeatSlug": null } ], "loops": [], "imagePathAlt": null, "thumbSrc": null, "thumbSrcAlt": null, "locked": true }