{ "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-ad0811d3e80d", "docSlug": "dfcef8f28a20", "documentTitle": "Accelerate Diagnostics (AXDX)", "authorId": "61_White_Diamond_Research", "authorName": "White Diamond Research", "documentKindSlug": "research-note", "documentKindLabel": "Research note", "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller", "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller", "presentationDate": "2019-09-16 00:00:00", "orientation": "portrait", "aspectRatio": 0.77272725, "pageNumber": 31, "pageCount": 41, "prevPage": 30, "nextPage": 32, "slideType": "executive_summary", "function": "diagnose_problem", "density": "dense", "nDataPoints": 8, "notes": "The slide uses a skeptical tone to challenge management's guidance, citing specific quarterly placement figures (133, 75, 55) to highlight a downward trend.", "elementsJson": [ "paragraph" ], "metadataConfidence": 0.95, "imagePath": null, "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-ad0811d3e80d/31", "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-ad0811d3e80d", "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-ad0811d3e80d.json", "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-ad0811d3e80d#slide-31", "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Could it be that all the low hanging fruit is gone, and every subsequent sale will be harder and harder to get?", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Visual emphasis", "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-78b4-70ad-b3a1-d9051088c8b9", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Pheno system placements: 130", "attrs": null, "subkind": "primary", "toolName": "Quantification", "toolSlug": "quantification", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-78b4-70ad-b3a1-de5ff752f56e", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.07, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.48 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "With the Mayo-UCLA clinical study likely showing no significant differences in LOS and mortality, we doubt that hospitals will change their negative view of the Pheno system. AXDX needs 170 more placements to reach the minimum 2019 placement guidance of 300.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "09deb878-2042-4218-95c3-165ed95d8b21", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.34 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "AXDX commercially placed the following numbers of Pheno systems in last three quarters: 133 systems in Q418; 75 systems in Q119; 55 systems in Q219. This indicates a considerable decline in Pheno system contracts over the past few quarters.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "4a2721a4-7558-4177-90e2-8481949172dd", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.7 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "In the Q219 earnings call, Mehren blamed the poor performance on slow Pheno system adoption in EMEA (Europe, Middle East, Asia). EMEA is primarily Europe since there is a much smaller market right now in the Middle East and Asia.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "bd756219-47c9-42f0-b76e-5db72d1a667d", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.07, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.26 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "As shown in the quote above from the Q418 earnings call, AXDX has guided to 300-400 Pheno system placements in 2019. At the current rate of placements, we believe it will be very hard for AXDX to get to even the lower end of that range of 300 placements.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "d7961bb5-fde7-4bd0-91b0-3d472563c47a", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.63 }, "kind": "title", "text": "EMEA (which is primarily EU) showed a reluctance to adopt Pheno system, despite pressing EU priority to fight antibiotic resistance", "attrs": null, "subkind": "headline", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "17dba1d8-980b-429d-ac7c-074334d5c78b", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.19 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Pheno system Q2 placements were below expectations, making it harder to reach the 2019 guidance of 300-400 placements", "attrs": null, "subkind": "headline", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "834f70b4-8ec4-444d-9272-aec34c237fd5", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 41, "from": 30, "beatId": "ca57db9c-677e-4ef8-919c-92b1690ee48e", "arcName": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "arcSlug": "problem-agitate-solution", "beatName": "Solution (Provide relief)", "beatSlug": "problem-agitate-solution-solution-provide-relief", "evidence": "The document implies that the solution is to be cautious of the system's limitations and avoid investment in AXDX, citing a potential decline in AXDX shares.", "position": 2, "confidence": 0.8, "parentBeatName": "Resolution", "parentBeatSlug": "resolution" } ], "loops": [ { "to": 35, "from": 31, "name": "Cost Of Inaction", "slug": "27-cost-of-inaction", "bestFor": "Urgent budget requests, compliance, risk mitigation", "matchId": "c590c16d-0680-4cc5-a734-8a884e9eff8b", "evidence": "The document implies that the cost of inaction is the potential decline in AXDX shares and the unjustifiable premium vs its close comparator, T2 Biosystems.", "position": 1, "objective": "What is the cost of inaction regarding AXDX's Pheno system?", "structure": "The Status Quo -> The Hidden Costs Accumulating -> The Future State of Inaction -> The Tipping Point", "confidence": 0.7, "description": "Quantify what happens if the audience does nothing" } ], "imagePathAlt": null, "thumbSrc": null, "thumbSrcAlt": null, "locked": true }