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      "text": "We think that within 6 months AXDX management will be forced to revise down reagent revenue expectations a second time.",
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      "text": "We examined the recently updated revenue models developed by 4 sell-side analysts in their respective analyst reports as shown below. These analysts are JP Morgan, Piper Jaffray, Craig Hallum, and BTIG.",
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      "text": "As shown above, in the Q218 call, the lag from being contracted commercially was 3-4 months and expected annuity was $60k-$80k. Now, in the Q219 call, Mehren said the lag is 4-9 months, and the annuity is $45K-$65K. We think that within 6 months AXDX management will be forced to revise down reagent revenue expectations a second time.",
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      "text": "We summarized each analyst's assumption on instrument and reagent sales during the last 6 quarters, as shown in the Table below. Instrument sales is the outright sale of the Pheno",
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      "text": "At the Q2 2019 call, expectations are significantly down both in terms of revenue per system and the time lag it takes to achieve it.",
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      "text": "Steve Reichling ... the reagents revenue is tracking with our expected annuity at around $60,000 to $80,000 per box. ... So once the system is contracted commercially, we have a three-month to four-month lag and then we have that consumable churning on",
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      "text": "Larry Mehren ....we continue to see an annuity stream in the range of $45,000 to $65,000 per instrument with U.S. customers at the upper end of the range and EMEA pulling down the overall average. ...Our target for the time from contract signature to go live is four to nine months.",
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      "text": "We built a reagent revenue model below assuming (a) newly contracted Pheno systems, in the current quarter and in the two quarters before did not generate any reagent revenue; (b) Pheno system capital sales revenue is an average of all sell-side analyst estimations; (c) AXDX receives $200 per kit.",
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      "text": "... the reagents revenue is tracking with our expected annuity at around $60,000 to $80,000 per box. ... So once the system is contracted commercially, we have a three-month to four-month lag and then we have that consumable churning on — Steve Reichling. ....we continue to see an annuity stream in the range of $45,000 to $65,000 per instrument with U.S. customers at the upper end of the range and EMEA pulling down the overall average. ...Our target for the time from contract signature to go live is four to nine months. — Larry Mehren",
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