{ "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-a34e1e87d1d8", "docSlug": "ebebcd140b34", "documentTitle": "CTO Realty Growth, Inc. (CTO)", "authorId": "60_Wolfpack_Research", "authorName": "Wolfpack Research", "documentKindSlug": "research-note", "documentKindLabel": "Research note", "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller", "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller", "presentationDate": "2025-06-25 00:00:00", "orientation": "portrait", "aspectRatio": 0.77272725, "pageNumber": 19, "pageCount": 30, "prevPage": 18, "nextPage": 20, "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "function": "expose_contradiction", "density": "overcrowded", "nDataPoints": 0, "notes": "The slide uses direct quotes from earnings calls to contrast management's narrative with analyst findings.", "elementsJson": [ "paragraph", "quote_block" ], "metadataConfidence": 1, "imagePath": null, "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-a34e1e87d1d8/19", "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-a34e1e87d1d8", "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-a34e1e87d1d8.json", "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-a34e1e87d1d8#slide-19", "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "It apparently won't be fairly easy or fast, as it is expected to take a full year from Q1 2025.", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Visual emphasis", "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-78b5-7512-b5a9-1c5bdb975dff", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.07, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.517 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Analyst: You announced that you signed somebody in one of these spaces today, how long would it generally be before you start seeing monthly rent? John Albright: So basically, I would say a safe number is a year. Earnings Call—Q1 2025", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "2fa0d4c4-cc98-4f69-83fc-bd8ba420b167", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.07, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.708 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The Fidelity property is an example of why we think CTO's carrying value for its properties are likely overstated. This is a single tenant office space located in Albuquerque, NM that CTO acquired in October 2018. This was a property that CTO attempted to sell in 2023 per a privately marketed CBRE flyer we were able to find:", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "512da2b9-c52e-4298-84f7-da3fb664d46c", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.11, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.094 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The interesting thing after the acquisition is Conn's and Big Lots were not part of the signed leases that are going to open. But now we've gotten those - we're in the process of trying to get those spaces back. We basically have multiple tenants that want that - those boxes at better, more favorable rents than we bought the project under. So this is looking as a fantastic investment. So knock on wood, we feel like the execution here is going to be fairly easy and fairly fast.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "90ed9afa-fedb-4e77-84ef-8558bdf4963c", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.217 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "It does not seem like the CEO was referring to the tenants who went bankrupt but did not stop paying rent until Q1 and Q2 of 2025. However, when an analyst questioned CTO following the reported vacancies the company's Q4 earnings call, the CEO pretended he had discussed the issue before:", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "b633bba6-44c7-419a-8227-0a4a55350624", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.417 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Reading between the lines, we infer that management did not do its due diligence for these properties and was caught off guard by the bankruptcy of Joann in particular. While lots of CTO's other properties need capex spend, it seems that most of CTO's capex budget will be spent releasing these vacated boxes. It apparently won't be fairly easy or fast, as it is expected to take a full year from Q1 2025.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "c42a487d-85e4-4f54-bcf8-9a61c4be6716", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.355 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"Yes. So I think I might have mentioned that in the last earnings call that when we put under contract Carolina Pavilion and by the time we closed, we had 3 tenants basically go bankrupt and close their stores, which is highly unusual\" - CEO Albright", "attrs": null, "subkind": "pull-quote", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "1e63479f-a324-4749-b00c-4b106c32b772", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.306 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"...were you aware you would lose a number of tenants in the fourth quarter or want to kick them out?\" - Analyst", "attrs": null, "subkind": "pull-quote", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "a214d32d-ba68-45ea-a5b0-41522497e8d2", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "“...were you aware you would lose a number of tenants in the fourth quarter or want to kick them out?” — Analyst; “Yes. So I think I might have mentioned that in the last earnings call that when we put under contract Carolina Pavilion and by the time we closed, we had 3 tenants basically go bankrupt and close their stores, which is highly unusual” — CEO Albright", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Authority citation", "toolSlug": "authority-citation", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-78b5-7512-b5a9-22bd6a40da3c", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.655 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Inability to Sell Fidelity Property Undermines Confidence in CTO's Reported Property Values", "attrs": null, "subkind": "headline", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "63ee9570-af61-4a01-a47a-714171cfb2ab", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "name": "fraud-exposure", "slug": null, "matchId": "001d260a-1242-4060-84b8-cfad6302f127", "evidence": "The slide explicitly contrasts management's public statements with operational reality to argue for overstated asset values.", "confidence": 0.9 } ], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 20, "from": 15, "beatId": "ad9e07c3-3617-4019-910d-225b6a4775fe", "arcName": "Overcoming the Monster", "arcSlug": "overcoming-monster", "beatName": "The Victory", "beatSlug": "overcoming-monster-the-victory", "evidence": "Presentation of alternative financial analysis", "position": 2, "confidence": 0.8, "parentBeatName": "Turn", "parentBeatSlug": "turn" } ], "loops": [], "imagePathAlt": null, "thumbSrc": null, "thumbSrcAlt": null, "locked": true }