{ "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-7ccae0d478d8", "docSlug": "9a39f9b2035f", "documentTitle": "IonQ Inc. (IONQ)", "authorId": "60_Wolfpack_Research", "authorName": "Wolfpack Research", "documentKindSlug": "research-note", "documentKindLabel": "Research note", "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller", "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller", "presentationDate": "2026-02-04 00:00:00", "orientation": "portrait", "aspectRatio": 0.77272725, "pageNumber": 3, "pageCount": 33, "prevPage": 2, "nextPage": 4, "slideType": "villain_critique", "function": "expose_contradiction", "density": "dense", "nDataPoints": 12, "notes": "The slide uses a series of bullet points to build a case of corporate malfeasance, citing specific financial figures and contract details to support the argument.", "elementsJson": [ "bullet_list", "footnote" ], "metadataConfidence": 1, "imagePath": null, "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-7ccae0d478d8/3", "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-7ccae0d478d8", "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-7ccae0d478d8.json", "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-7ccae0d478d8#slide-3", "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "We believe IONQ's purchase of Qubitekk on December 27th, 2024, was primarily used to inflate bookings and create the false appearance of ongoing government support for IONQ.", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Visual emphasis", "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-70fa-7556-8657-fa649044be61", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "x": 0.148, "y": 0.303 }, "kind": "list", "text": "When we look at the revenues generated by the three revenue generating businesses IONQ has already acquired, Vector Atomics, IDQ, and Capella, we calculate that these inorganic acquisitions could account for at least ~$37 million of the $42-48 million in revenues IONQ has told analysts to expect in Q4 2025. And we expect these non-quantum computing companies to generate $160-$180 million in 2026. SKYT's revenues for its semi-conducting business will likely make up the majority of revenues. IONQ's quantum revenues? We estimate $12.5 million from Qubitekk's renewed backdoor earmark could be the only token source of quantum computing revenues this year.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "bullet", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "9c9f1d44-43df-4166-8f4a-81931df0af81", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "x": 0.148, "y": 0.095 }, "kind": "list", "text": "The purchase of SKYT is particularly puzzling and shatters the idea IONQ is a quantum pure play. IONQ opened a manufacturing and R&D facility in Washington in 2024. Yet management is selling this as vertical integration, but IONQ does not even have a business to vertically integrate yet! SKYT appears to be another business that relies on backdoor earmarks for funding, supplementing its razor-thin margins with government grants (TTM operating income was just $3.1 million on TTM revenues of $346.6 million). In fact, they used to have the same lobbyist (though that relationship ended with a dispute over fees that went to federal court). However, unlike IONQ, SKYT's earmark was funded in the latest budget for $34.2 million. We suspect IONQ is salivating over the prospect of announcing this as some sort of new collaboration between themselves and the Pentagon.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "bullet", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "9faee64f-a92e-493c-9995-0ba1def8cea9", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "x": 0.148, "y": 0.703 }, "kind": "list", "text": "We believe the Qubitekk and EPB Chattanooga deals underscore the truth of statements made by a former employee cited in Scorpion's extensive 2021 report, claiming the company would pay to make deals: \"Peter Chapman was saying that if you have to spend a lot of money to get a deal, that's fine with me, I just want the signing.\" We learned from a confidential source that a former executive confirmed the truth of this statement made to Scorpion. Here we see them buying Qubitekk, which they will only break even on after nearly two years, while failing to disclose in any place that we could find that they paid $15 million for the EPB project just to say they won a $22 million sale.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "bullet", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "c05a0658-93d1-4019-a814-80affdd10117", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "x": 0.148, "y": 0.463 }, "kind": "list", "text": "We believe IONQ's purchase of Qubitekk on December 27th, 2024, was primarily used to inflate bookings and create the false appearance of ongoing government support for IONQ. Qubitekk received an $8.9 million contract from an arm of the Pentagon called the Air Force Research Lab (AFRL) on December 20th, 2024, although this contract contained an unfunded ceiling to potentially increase its value to $21.1 million. This too, was the product of a backdoor earmark. On December 27th, IONQ purchased Qubitekk Federal, LLC (Qubitekk) for $22 million. On January 5th, IONQ announced its purchase of Qubitekk, then announced on January 13th that IONQ itself had won the federal contract valued at $21.1 million. This $21.1 million number was reported in its Q4 2024 earnings release as part of its bookings, even though only $8.9 million was funded at the time. Our analysis of the bipartisan FY 2026 budget shows IONQ did get its Qubitekk earmark renewed for $12.5 million, but this renewed earmark only finishes payment on the $21.1 million contract they already announced last year.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "bullet", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "de9db37c-7373-4ae5-a975-001fe14ab87b", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "x": 0.795, "y": 0.925 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Page 3 of 33", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "e0013687-70e0-4491-9bf8-1dbab426d1a7", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "Peter Chapman was saying that if you have to spend a lot of money to get a deal, that’s fine with me, I just want the signing. — Former employee cited in Scorpion's extensive 2021 report", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Authority citation", "toolSlug": "authority-citation", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-70fa-7556-8657-fd0a008b6874", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "name": "fraud-exposure", "slug": null, "matchId": "657c2f40-27a3-486c-b7a1-ed37d7556ae5", "evidence": "The slide explicitly argues that acquisitions are used to inflate bookings and create false appearances of government support.", "confidence": 0.9 } ], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 5, "from": 1, "beatId": "def1279a-eed8-4738-90f7-01776f0b8e8b", "arcName": "Overcoming the Monster", "arcSlug": "overcoming-monster", "beatName": "The Monster", "beatSlug": "overcoming-monster-the-monster", "evidence": "IONQ's Pentagon contract issues and credibility problems", "position": 0, "confidence": 0.8, "parentBeatName": "Hook", "parentBeatSlug": "hook" } ], "loops": [], "imagePathAlt": null, "thumbSrc": null, "thumbSrcAlt": null, "locked": true }