{
  "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-7b4e3a6e99ac",
  "docSlug": "79dd67a6953a",
  "documentTitle": "Goosehead Insurance, Inc. (GSHD)",
  "authorId": "60_Wolfpack_Research",
  "authorName": "Wolfpack Research",
  "documentKindSlug": "research-note",
  "documentKindLabel": "Research note",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller",
  "presentationDate": "2023-02-16 00:00:00",
  "orientation": "portrait",
  "aspectRatio": 0.77272725,
  "pageNumber": 1,
  "pageCount": 19,
  "prevPage": null,
  "nextPage": 2,
  "slideType": "executive_summary",
  "function": "summarize",
  "density": "dense",
  "nDataPoints": 9,
  "notes": "This is a classic activist short-seller research note summary.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "logo_grid",
    "paragraph",
    "footnote"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": "https://imgproxy.kitesheet.com/Ri065LfmFp3W2IIRD4P4Feyq4pKX8ZGnPydqlD-vIaM/rs:fit:1200:1200:0/q:82/f:webp/czM6Ly9raXRlc2hlZXQvY29ycHVzL3NsaWRlcy83OWRkNjdhNjk1M2EvcDAwMS5wbmc",
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-7b4e3a6e99ac/1",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-7b4e3a6e99ac",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-7b4e3a6e99ac.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-7b4e3a6e99ac#slide-1",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "We are short Goosehead Insurance (Nasdaq: GSHD) for three key reasons: (1) our analysis shows that, contrary to management’s claims, the failure rate of their first-year franchisees topped 67% in 2021 and we expect that number to increase again in 2022; (2) GSHD’s reliance on the housing market is much greater than management lets on; and (3) we calculate that the CEO and other pre-IPO investors have taken more than $900 million off the table while the company has only generated $23.4 million in cumulative net income since the IPO.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Visual emphasis",
      "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd953-70f9-71ae-a66e-d9dd6c481704",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.15,
        "w": 0.78,
        "x": 0.11,
        "y": 0.19
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "We are short Goosehead Insurance (Nasdaq: GSHD) for three key reasons: (1) our analysis shows that, contrary to management’s claims, the failure rate of their first-year franchisees topped 67% in 2021...",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "16838121-fac8-4487-8786-fc922a2d7ad3",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.15,
        "w": 0.78,
        "x": 0.11,
        "y": 0.67
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "GSHD’s governance bears a closer resemblance to a fiefdom than a corporation. Mark Jones is the CEO and Chairman, his wife is the Vice-Chairman, his son is the CFO, and his son-in-law is the Chief Legal Officer.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "630329a8-b4e5-4ca5-bfc2-6f7591b68ca2",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.15,
        "w": 0.78,
        "x": 0.11,
        "y": 0.35
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "Franchisees primarily fail because they make very little money and are cannibalized by the company’s corporate channel. We calculate that the median first-year franchisee brings home just $38,400...",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "b96b6749-dd1a-4516-a2ff-e4e380fda93b",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.15,
        "w": 0.78,
        "x": 0.11,
        "y": 0.51
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "Contrary to management’s recent representations concerning their dependence on the housing market, our interviews with former employees indicate that GSHD counts on leads for homeowners’ insurance...",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "f99aa88c-7a8f-46fd-8bb9-3ba49ad3a4f5",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.02,
        "w": 0.3,
        "x": 0.11,
        "y": 0.9
      },
      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "(Double click on Endnotes to view source)",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "ebd5c1f4-646b-4772-b193-901b668409fb",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.02,
        "w": 0.5,
        "x": 0.11,
        "y": 0.16
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "GSHD: A Growth Story In Decline And Priced To Fall",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "1ac5518d-9929-46d3-b9d7-35e2cf096bd6",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [
    {
      "name": "Executive summary",
      "slug": "executive-summary",
      "agent": null,
      "layer": "slide",
      "matchId": "26baf7f0-9a6c-4cfe-8f2d-6cbce3e7b04a",
      "evidence": "This slide serves as an executive summary, highlighting the main reasons for shorting Goosehead Insurance (Nasdaq: GSHD).",
      "confidence": 0.9
    }
  ],
  "frameworks": [],
  "arcBeats": [],
  "loops": [],
  "imagePathAlt": "https://imgproxy.kitesheet.com/czrK2X1MzJzJXTKqck864rsYf9WvF07VZK3vvIL8jX8/rs:fit:1200:1200:0/q:82/f:webp/czM6Ly9raXRlc2hlZXQvY29ycHVzL3NsaWRlcy83OWRkNjdhNjk1M2EvcDAwMS5qcGc",
  "thumbSrc": "https://imgproxy.kitesheet.com/pbzPI6L2LxMg39SYsNvqWl10SnlOA1Ro5Mt9RaXhezk/rs:fit:480:480:0/q:78/f:webp/czM6Ly9raXRlc2hlZXQvY29ycHVzL3NsaWRlcy83OWRkNjdhNjk1M2EvcDAwMS5wbmc",
  "thumbSrcAlt": "https://imgproxy.kitesheet.com/ktTSqNjDsSu8EGGvxwXzR8-Uo7xTMSVJsbJtxCPVCiY/rs:fit:480:480:0/q:78/f:webp/czM6Ly9raXRlc2hlZXQvY29ycHVzL3NsaWRlcy83OWRkNjdhNjk1M2EvcDAwMS5qcGc"
}