{ "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-692010d91d05", "docSlug": "7b1e82ee5383", "documentTitle": "Ramaco Resources, Inc. (METC)", "authorId": "60_Wolfpack_Research", "authorName": "Wolfpack Research", "documentKindSlug": "research-note", "documentKindLabel": "Research note", "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller", "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller", "presentationDate": "2023-12-11 00:00:00", "orientation": "portrait", "aspectRatio": 0.77272725, "pageNumber": 13, "pageCount": 25, "prevPage": 12, "nextPage": 14, "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "function": "expose_contradiction", "density": "dense", "nDataPoints": 4, "notes": "The slide uses a Bloomberg stock chart to visually correlate insider selling with price peaks.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "line_chart", "footnote" ], "metadataConfidence": 1, "imagePath": null, "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-692010d91d05/13", "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-692010d91d05", "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-692010d91d05.json", "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-692010d91d05#slide-13", "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "if Yorktown and METC’s insiders actually believe the Brook Mine is worth anywhere near $37 billion then why are they selling so many of their shares at a sub $1 billion valuation?", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Visual emphasis", "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-0f20-71ed-bddb-39c64df47513", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.32, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.21 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "METC US Equity price chart with insider transaction markers", "attrs": null, "subkind": "line", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "515a08d1-8647-4ead-a613-76107ce552b0", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "insider selling: $96.3 million", "attrs": null, "subkind": "primary", "toolName": "Quantification", "toolSlug": "quantification", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-0f20-71ed-bddb-3e8e19d249b0", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.14 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Insiders have used METC’s recent rise in its share price as an opportunity to cash out. Over the past month, insiders have dumped $96.3 million worth of stock—more than 10% of METC’s current market cap. As seen below, insiders are having a fire sale:", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "26bed226-2330-46ee-9cab-1506aba8b1f2", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.56 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Leading the pack of insider selling is METC’s largest shareholder, Yorktown Partners, which has sold more than 12% of their stake in the company since November. We think if the Brook Mine or Ramaco Carbon had any substantial value, Yorktown along with members of METC’s Board wouldn’t be selling. It’s that simple: if Yorktown and METC’s insiders actually believe the Brook Mine is worth anywhere near $37 billion then why are they selling so many of their shares at a sub $1 billion valuation?", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "4a58bd58-8fe3-422f-bee2-f36a9bea54e8", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.68 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "In our opinion, an existing $400 million shelf offering is cause for alarm. METC’s recent run-up in share price, coupled with newfound love for the stock from retail due to the flurry of media attention and promotional television appearances are tell-tale signs dilution is coming soon. We expect METC to use the shelf at today’s inflated prices. A $400 million equity offering at METC’s current valuation equates to ~45% dilution for current shareholders.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "8aaefef3-64a7-4946-b6c6-d73028bedd65", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.53 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: METC Graph Insider Transactions, Accessed via Bloomberg, LP", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "4770b458-14a5-4a95-a5ac-b0a5b5c36959", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.08 }, "kind": "title", "text": "METC’s Largest Shareholder, Yorktown, Is Selling Brook Mine’s Hype as Meaningful Dilution Looms", "attrs": null, "subkind": "headline", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "d941cf5d-274a-4489-9388-02ca6b7491a5", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "name": "fraud-exposure", "slug": null, "matchId": "2590417d-63ed-4d3b-8b33-f15175f5eb5f", "evidence": "The slide explicitly questions the company's valuation claims by pointing to insider selling behavior.", "confidence": 0.9 } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [ { "to": 13, "from": 10, "name": "Cost Of Inaction", "slug": "27-cost-of-inaction", "bestFor": "Urgent budget requests, compliance, risk mitigation", "matchId": "630c0773-3737-4d8c-b481-12655a789057", "evidence": "The document highlights the consequences of not taking action", "position": 1, "objective": "What is the cost of inaction for METC's investors?", "structure": "The Status Quo -> The Hidden Costs Accumulating -> The Future State of Inaction -> The Tipping Point", "confidence": 0.6, "description": "Quantify what happens if the audience does nothing" } ], "imagePathAlt": null, "thumbSrc": null, "thumbSrcAlt": null, "locked": true }