{ "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-4b91788fc785", "docSlug": "5fadb686cc03", "documentTitle": "Twist Bioscience (TWST)", "authorId": "58_Scorpion_Capital", "authorName": "Scorpion Capital", "documentKindSlug": "activist-deck", "documentKindLabel": "Activist deck", "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller", "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller", "presentationDate": "2022-11-15 00:00:00", "orientation": "landscape", "aspectRatio": 1.2941177, "pageNumber": 71, "pageCount": 236, "prevPage": 70, "nextPage": 72, "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "function": "expose_contradiction", "density": "overcrowded", "nDataPoints": 2, "notes": "Uses Q&A format to present primary source interview data.", "elementsJson": [ "paragraph", "quote_block" ], "metadataConfidence": 1, "imagePath": null, "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-4b91788fc785/71", "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-4b91788fc785", "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-4b91788fc785.json", "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-4b91788fc785#slide-71", "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Ex-employees and competitors we interviewed repeatedly used the phrase “race to the bottom” to describe the pricing dynamic.", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Visual emphasis", "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-0932-77cf-bfe9-38d220f7cfcd", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.35 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Oligo pricing is a race to the bottom; “seismic shift” as new players cut prices another 70%", "attrs": null, "subkind": "bullet", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "bb062a55-bd3e-4192-9eaa-a4397ae060ab", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.68 }, "kind": "list", "text": "“Not bullish” on their NGS offering; race to the bottom in pricing; competitors’ NGS chemistries have caught up", "attrs": null, "subkind": "bullet", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "c8be4424-d59a-420e-928f-44a31148a783", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.4 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "A: “There are a lot of vendors out there that are in the phase where they’ve received money to scale up, and they’re looking for customers... If Rootpath is able to deliver on the 3 cents per base pair, they will probably get bought by someone... If that pans out, I do see a seismic shift in the DNA synthesis market; if one of these vendors can actually hit those prices and deliver consistently.” Q: “Have you ordered from Rootpath?” A: “I probably shouldn’t go into details about current relationships with my current employer.” - Former Twist manager in a manufacturing role, previously and currently employed by key competitors", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "09f79ed2-19f7-44b9-ad6f-f8e68baa1230", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.2, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.73 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "A: “I’m not bullish about their NGS products. They had a dominant position in hybrid capture when chemistries weren’t caught, and performance wasn’t caught up in their ability to sell the unique relationship. I think the business models have changed at their competitors to catch up. So, it’s a much more competitive space.” Q: “Is it a race to the bottom in pricing?” A: “Usually, sequencing comes first, and that’s what’s happening. Everyone’s going to focus on the race to the bottom for sample prep next. I think if sequencing costs less than sample prep, then the market has to adapt.” -Former employee now at a key competitor", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "1d0a7987-2cb7-44bf-8f59-f977eb5000df", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.08 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Ex-employees and competitors we interviewed repeatedly used the phrase “race to the bottom” to describe the pricing dynamic. A former Twist manufacturing manager predicted another “seismic shift in the DNA synthesis market” as disruptive entrants like Rootpath collapse pricing another 70% from already rock-bottom levels. Another ex-employee stated that NGS pricing– the majority of Twist’s revenue and its source of growth – was similarly tanking: “I’m not bullish about their NGS products”", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "ce904211-7a6a-46cc-9f96-a0140d82af4c", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "“If that pans out, I do see a seismic shift in the DNA synthesis market; if one of these vendors can actually hit those prices and deliver consistently.” — Former Twist manager in a manufacturing role, previously and currently employed by key competitors. “I’m not bullish about their NGS products.” — Former employee now at a key competitor.", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Authority citation", "toolSlug": "authority-citation", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-0932-77cf-bfe9-3fb51afc7410", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.3, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.95 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Scorpion Capital consultation calls with experts", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "670b61bd-c8b8-4225-aa97-d91ff0e07c16", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "name": "antagonist-introduction", "slug": null, "matchId": "28801b58-ab8d-410f-a2ca-ebefd59bc69c", "evidence": "Uses expert testimony to frame competitors and market dynamics as threats to the company's business model.", "confidence": 0.8 } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "imagePathAlt": null, "thumbSrc": null, "thumbSrcAlt": null, "locked": true }