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  "documentTitle": "Twist Bioscience (TWST)",
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  "authorName": "Scorpion Capital",
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  "presentationDate": "2022-11-15 00:00:00",
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  "notes": "Uses a historical blog post from a customer (Ginkgo) to perform a bottom-up TAM calculation that undermines the company's narrative.",
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      "text": "Twist’s TAM is like a treadmill where one has to keep running faster to stay in the same place.",
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      "text": "Blog post by Ginkgo Bioworks co-founder Barry Canton",
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      "text": "Total Addressable Market: $100MM",
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      "text": "When Twist and Ginkgo announced their signature deal in 2016, a Ginkgo co-founder published a blog post discussing their “commitment to buy 100 million base pairs of DNA from Twist Bioscience.” He stated that “by volume, this equals 10% of the global volume for gene synthesis in 2015.” At a pricing of 10 cents per base pair, that pegged the TAM at a mere $100MM. Even if the market is now 10X the size, that’s still only 10B base pairs – and given Twist discounts of >75% and pricing to Ginkgo we believe to be 1.5 cents, one can easily do the math. Twist’s TAM is like a treadmill where one has to keep running faster to stay in the same place.",
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      "text": "While Twist, like every “synthetic biology” company, promotes TAM figures in the tens of billions, investors are missing a key point – that Twist’s insane pricing has already nuked its addressable market size.",
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      "text": "“Ginkgo has just announced a commitment to buy 100 million base pairs of DNA from Twist Bioscience in 2016. By volume, this equals 10% of the global volume for gene synthesis in 2015.” — Barry Canton, Ginkgo Bioworks co-founder",
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      "text": "Source: https://www.ginkgobioworks.com/2015/11/04/comments-on-gene-synthesis-in-light-of-our-deal-with-twist/",
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