{ "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-4b91788fc785", "docSlug": "5fadb686cc03", "documentTitle": "Twist Bioscience (TWST)", "authorId": "58_Scorpion_Capital", "authorName": "Scorpion Capital", "documentKindSlug": "activist-deck", "documentKindLabel": "Activist deck", "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller", "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller", "presentationDate": "2022-11-15 00:00:00", "orientation": "landscape", "aspectRatio": 1.2941177, "pageNumber": 195, "pageCount": 236, "prevPage": 194, "nextPage": 196, "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "function": "expose_contradiction", "density": "dense", "nDataPoints": 1, "notes": "Uses expert testimony to frame the company as a commodity player in a niche market.", "elementsJson": [ "paragraph", "quote_block", "footnote" ], "metadataConfidence": 0.95, "imagePath": null, "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-4b91788fc785/195", "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-4b91788fc785", "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-4b91788fc785.json", "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-4b91788fc785#slide-195", "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Twist’s TAM in NGS is less than $500MM and is dominated by divisions of large players like Roche, Agilent, and Danaher", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Visual emphasis", "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-0933-75bb-9bf4-718bc84759d1", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.35, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.08 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Ex-employees and other experts indicated that Twist’s total addressable market is tiny, particularly in NGS – perhaps a few hundred million dollars. NGS comprises half of Twist’s revenue and has been its key driver of recent growth. Despite its hype and lofty aspirations, Twist’s financials show that it remains for all intents and purposes nothing more than a commodity NGS play – and the small TAM helps to explain why Twist is fast approaching saturation. The NGS market is composed of two segments: hybrid-capture and amplicon sequencing. Hybrid-capture is the smaller of the two, with one former employee saying it’s “hundreds of millions...probably less than $500 million” with Twist attempting to compete for a small pie against Agilent, Roche, and IDT.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "69ba684a-09b8-40ed-a0d0-b15b517220b2", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.55 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "An NGS is what you mentioned where you make a probe, and you put a piece of biotin on it, and that sequence, it’s specific to a sequence that the customer defines, and I’ll use an example like BRCA 1, BRCA 2. You want to sequence only that. You have two ways of doing it. One, you can order a primer, and you can get a primer set to amplify it and then sequence it. Or you order a hybrid capture probe that has the sequence of BRCA defined in it. Build the library up and pull it out, and then put it on a sequencer and sequence only what you pulled out using the probes.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "testimonial", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "2b9b0437-d717-476d-a1f9-0e3c23be81ff", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.78 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "Specifically, hybrid capture, it’s hundreds of millions. I would say probably less than 500 million, and it’s dominated by four key players in the market: IDT, Twist, Roche, and Agilent.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "testimonial", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "edfb0098-0a2f-41d3-b93a-47d39582a3e2", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "“An NGS is what you mentioned where you make a probe, and you put a piece of biotin on it, and that sequence, it’s specific to a sequence that the customer defines, and I’ll use an example like BRCA 1, BRCA 2. You want to sequence only that. You have two ways of doing it. One, you can order a primer, and you can get a primer set to amplify it and then sequence it. Or you order a hybrid capture probe that has the sequence of BRCA defined in it. Build the library up and pull it out, and then put it on a sequencer and sequence only what you pulled out using the probes.” — Former employee now at a key competitor; “Specifically, hybrid capture, it’s hundreds of millions. I would say probably less than 500 million, and it’s dominated by four key players in the market: IDT, Twist, Roche, and Agilent.” — Former employee now at a key competitor", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Authority citation", "toolSlug": "authority-citation", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-0933-75bb-9bf4-75ee79d2aa40", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.3, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.95 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Scorpion Capital consultation calls with experts", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "83320bfd-92cc-4047-a26f-66a19a16abc6", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "name": "authority-citation", "slug": null, "matchId": "48c95923-e0e8-40a4-ac4e-11b511988a22", "evidence": "Uses expert testimony to validate claims about market size.", "confidence": 0.9 } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "imagePathAlt": null, "thumbSrc": null, "thumbSrcAlt": null, "locked": true }