{ "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-4b91788fc785", "docSlug": "5fadb686cc03", "documentTitle": "Twist Bioscience (TWST)", "authorId": "58_Scorpion_Capital", "authorName": "Scorpion Capital", "documentKindSlug": "activist-deck", "documentKindLabel": "Activist deck", "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller", "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller", "presentationDate": "2022-11-15 00:00:00", "orientation": "landscape", "aspectRatio": 1.2941177, "pageNumber": 194, "pageCount": 236, "prevPage": 193, "nextPage": 195, "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "function": "expose_contradiction", "density": "dense", "nDataPoints": 0, "notes": "The slide uses a Q&A format to validate the thesis that Twist is losing market share to larger incumbents.", "elementsJson": [ "paragraph", "quote_block", "footnote" ], "metadataConfidence": 0.95, "imagePath": null, "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-4b91788fc785/194", "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-4b91788fc785", "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-4b91788fc785.json", "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-4b91788fc785#slide-194", "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Twist is not a big vendor, and they cannot offer many different things. They have their market, which is laboratories in universities and smaller startups....", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Visual emphasis", "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-0933-75bb-9bf4-9c216e6552f8", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.35 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Twist’s chip can only make smaller oligos, which are a small niche; limited growth opportunity; larger vendors will continue to dominate; Twist may “go bankrupt” or “collapse”; Novartis plans to reduce spending with Twist", "attrs": null, "subkind": "bullet", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "9d3740a5-4cb0-4e7c-bbb6-e11711e5652f", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.08 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "A recurring theme during our research interviews was Twist’s difficulty in competing against large players that own the market – which is why it had no way to break in except via its insane discounting and customer subsidy scheme. Our research suggests that these players are now actively using their fly swatter, and Twist is starting to struggle. For example, Novartis stated that it plans to reduce its spend with Twist in favor of larger vendors that are “dominating more and more of the market”: “Twist is not a big vendor, and they cannot offer many different things. They have their market, which is laboratories in universities and smaller startups....”", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "6dd0e441-1838-4b10-bf5c-a8b583d9ba4b", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.45, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.45 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "Q: “You’re saying these guys have a niche in very early-stage research with a very short oligos product.”\nA: “Exactly. For that product, yes. It’s a very dedicated niche...I don’t think the stock will suddenly in two years or in five years that everybody will buy from Twist.”\nQ: “Why is that?”\nA: “Because I think the big ones are getting bigger and bigger and dominating more and more of the market, and big pharma is consolidating with a smaller number of vendors that have a better offering. And Twist is not a big vendor, and they cannot offer many different things. I think they have their market, which is laboratories in universities, smaller startups, and some part of pharma, but they will not suddenly grow like crazy...what could happen in the future is that they go bankrupt or they collapse because at some point, if they are selling everything at a lower price, I don’t know how they are going to compensate for that.”\nQ: “Do you plan to spend less or more with them or about the same per year?”\nA: “Probably every year, it will decrease because we will invest more into the Thermo’s and the Sigma’s because they will dominate more and more.” - Novartis, a large Twist customer, scientist in a leadership role", "attrs": null, "subkind": "testimonial", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "2cd61fd2-93d4-4829-8ec7-b80650934b38", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "“Twist is not a big vendor, and they cannot offer many different things. They have their market, which is laboratories in universities, smaller startups, and some part of pharma, but they will not suddenly grow like crazy...what could happen in the future is that they go bankrupt or they collapse because at some point, if they are selling everything at a lower price, I don't know how they are going to compensate for that.” — Novartis, a large Twist customer, scientist in a leadership role", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Authority citation", "toolSlug": "authority-citation", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-0933-75bb-9bf4-a1f74ee91356", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.3, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.95 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Scorpion Capital consultation calls with experts", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "0942b3f8-8a16-4db6-b441-ab06565e0ffa", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "name": "fraud-exposure", "slug": null, "matchId": "45ba1010-141b-4eda-84e3-1751ce54a476", "evidence": "The slide uses expert testimony to undermine the company's growth narrative and financial viability.", "confidence": 0.85 } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "imagePathAlt": null, "thumbSrc": null, "thumbSrcAlt": null, "locked": true }