{ "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-4b91788fc785", "docSlug": "5fadb686cc03", "documentTitle": "Twist Bioscience (TWST)", "authorId": "58_Scorpion_Capital", "authorName": "Scorpion Capital", "documentKindSlug": "activist-deck", "documentKindLabel": "Activist deck", "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller", "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller", "presentationDate": "2022-11-15 00:00:00", "orientation": "landscape", "aspectRatio": 1.2941177, "pageNumber": 19, "pageCount": 236, "prevPage": 18, "nextPage": 20, "slideType": "executive_summary", "function": "summarize", "density": "overcrowded", "nDataPoints": 0, "notes": "This slide continues a series of points (3-6) detailing competitive threats and market limitations.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "subtitle_text", "numbered_list" ], "metadataConfidence": 1, "imagePath": null, "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-4b91788fc785/19", "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-4b91788fc785", "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-4b91788fc785.json", "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-4b91788fc785#slide-19", "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Twist exhibits telling signs that its “growth” is about to hit the wall", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Visual emphasis", "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-0931-74b9-a339-b885fb41fba2", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.22, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.42 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "4. IDT, another key competitor, provided additional evidence of Twist’s struggles and saturation, stating that Twist initially took “substantial” share – “especially in NGS” – given their “insane prices,” but that IDT is now “having a substantial amount of success at winning back the customers they had lost several years before,” due to frustrations with Twist’s lead times and quality. He observed that “there’s definitely a change in customer attitude happening” away from Twist – despite is radically lower prices – and large players have all “released new chemistry” that eliminated Twist’s momentary advantage within its little niche in NGS. He continued that he’s “not bullish about their NGS products” and described a race to the bottom in pricing – “it’s a much more competitive space.”", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "6ae7fb05-cc69-4bf3-aac4-1593320b4fa5", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.16 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "3. Twist’s Chinese competitors provided market intelligence similar to US ones, stating that Twist hasn’t had “much of an impact” on the market and that they no longer see it as a threat or even as a “major competitor.” Genscript called out Twist’s nascent, much-hyped antibody discovery business as a flop, listing a number of antibody discovery customers who worked with Twist, only to now return, and indicated that these customers painted Twist’s antibody efforts as a face-plant – that they couldn’t come up with antibody leads nor honor timelines, taking 7-8 months before failing. We encountered widespread derision of Twist’s antibody hype – from ex-employees and other experts – such as a longtime industry executive who called their hopes “naïve” as it’s unrealistic “to switch over from a tool company to a drug discovery company and make antibodies.”", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "752b4ab7-9b0d-41a6-a42d-81857e2af415", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.81 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "6. Twist’s total addressable market is tiny, particularly in NGS, and helps to explain why Twist is fast approaching saturation. The NGS market is composed of two segments: hybrid-capture and amplicon sequencing. Hybrid-capture is the smaller of the two, with one former employee saying it’s “hundreds of millions…probably less than $500 million” with Twist attempting to compete for a small pie against Agilent, Roche, and IDT. In addition, Twist is locked out of most of the NGS market because its technology can’t make enough mass for primers, nor other key components of the NGS workflow like prep kits – “this is well known” – thereby dooming them to a little niche with only a “fixed amount of space”: “they don’t have the core competency”; space is “owned by their competition like Roche.”", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "790f3b9b-dd12-47d8-8e8a-e7949b03913e", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.65 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "5. A recurring theme during our research interviews was Twist’s difficulty in competing against large incumbents that own the market – which is why it’s only option for entering the market was discounts and customer subsidies. These larger players are now actively using their fly swatter, and Twist is starting to struggle. For example, a major customer stated that it plans to reduce its spend with Twist in favor of larger vendors that are “dominating more and more of the market,” adding that the competitive environment is “very hard right now” for smaller players like Twist – it’s “very difficult for smaller ones.”", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "ed74c39c-e542-40a1-8458-f08ee7c3fc4c", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "Genscript called out Twist’s nascent, much-hyped antibody discovery business as a flop... that these customers painted Twist’s antibody efforts as a face-plant — that they couldn’t come up with antibody leads nor honor timelines, taking 7-8 months before failing.", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Authority citation", "toolSlug": "authority-citation", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-0931-74b9-a339-bef1b00f713e", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.11 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Part VI: Twist exhibits telling signs that its “growth” is about to hit the wall (cont’d)", "attrs": null, "subkind": "action-title", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "71cba40c-442d-407f-b5d9-9f0782f7afae", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.25, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.05 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Executive Summary", "attrs": null, "subkind": "headline", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "fe2808f0-6ef1-4912-83f0-e36ee137ec54", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [ { "name": "Executive summary", "slug": "executive-summary", "agent": null, "layer": "slide", "matchId": "cf83d429-8d0f-488a-9dd8-b095d3425135", "evidence": "The slide is titled 'Executive Summary' and contains a continuation of the previous slide.", "confidence": 0.9 } ], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 20, "from": 6, "beatId": "8f2eca0e-8434-4468-bc6b-5d434d1e6d1e", "arcName": "Overcoming the Monster", "arcSlug": "overcoming-monster", "beatName": "Exposing contradictions in Twist's narrative", "beatSlug": null, "evidence": "Detailed criticisms of Twist's business practices and financials", "position": 1, "confidence": 0.8, "parentBeatName": null, "parentBeatSlug": null } ], "loops": [], "imagePathAlt": null, "thumbSrc": null, "thumbSrcAlt": null, "locked": true }