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  "documentTitle": "Skillz, Inc. (SKLZ)",
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  "presentationDate": "2021-03-08 00:00:00",
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      "text": "To meet its projected 61.4% YoY growth in 1Q21 after such poor numbers in January and February, SKLZ would need 3.6 million downloads in March alone.",
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      "text": "Regardless, Skillz relies heavily on a very narrow set of developers and games. It is not Shopify for real-money game developers: it is a monetization platform for a small group of developers – the departure of any one of these could crush the business.",
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      "text": "Even if it had another game like Blackout Bingo go viral in March, it wouldn’t come close to 1Q21 projections. Further, mobile games like Blackout Bingo going viral is extremely rare and impossible to predict.",
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      "text": "SKLZ’s 63% revenue growth in 2021 is entirely unachievable without it stumbling upon multiple new hits. Relying on unpredictable and rare successes from a highly concentrated customer base is not a sustainable (or investible) business, in our view. We foresee a lot of pain for SKLZ in 2021 as it attempts to live up to the unrealistic projections it has provided for 2021-2022.",
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      "text": "To meet its projected 61.4% YoY growth in 1Q21 after such poor numbers in January and February, SKLZ would need 3.6 million downloads in March alone. This is more than double the downloads SKLZ has ever had in a single month.",
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      "text": "1. Third-party app data shows installations of the three games responsible for 88% of SKLZ’s revenues all declined substantially in Q4 2020. Q1 2021 is in full free fall showing us that Jan and Feb 2021 YOY are +2% and -20% respectively:",
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