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  "documentTitle": "TransMedics (TMDX)",
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  "authorName": "Scorpion Capital",
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  "presentationDate": "2025-01-10 00:00:00",
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      "text": "The company’s disclosure is opaque, as it fails to break out the key figure – device sales by organ – showing only a product/service total by SKU.",
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      "text": "If you own the stock, we have bad news for you: it’s already over. You just don’t know it yet. Fasten your seatbelt and put on some goggles, because the stuff has yet to hit the fan. The TransMedics story is cliche for a fraud - hubris, overreach, calling to mind the usual genre, Icarus, Narcissus, or perhaps for this one, Shelley’s ode to the pharaoh Ozymandias. TransMedics has an unusual and cunning business model, a creature of perverse incentives unique to organ transplantation. It sells a device for the transportation, preservation, and assessment of organs for transplant, called the Organ Care System (OCS) – plus an outsourced end-to-end service called the National OCS Program (NOP), comprised of its own fleet of private jets, organ procurement surgeons, and device technicians who manage the organ. The device comes in three versions for lung, heart, and liver. NOP service revenue comprised 39% in the last quarter; and the company is a one-trick pony for liver. Lung, its first product, is a self-evident failure. Heart growth has been underwhelming, and all three versions declined sequentially in the last quarter. The company’s disclosure is opaque, as it fails to break out the key figure – device sales by organ – showing only a product/service total by SKU.",
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      "text": "Source: Scorpion Capital consultation calls with experts; Capital IQ data; TransMedics SEC filings; Scorpion Capital estimates and analysis",
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