{ "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-40e2965928db", "docSlug": "e5bffbaac707", "documentTitle": "TransMedics (TMDX)", "authorId": "58_Scorpion_Capital", "authorName": "Scorpion Capital", "documentKindSlug": "research-note", "documentKindLabel": "Research note", "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller", "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller", "presentationDate": "2025-01-10 00:00:00", "orientation": "landscape", "aspectRatio": 1.3333334, "pageNumber": 12, "pageCount": 342, "prevPage": 11, "nextPage": 13, "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "function": "expose_contradiction", "density": "dense", "nDataPoints": 0, "notes": "The slide uses a 'Spy The Lie' framework to interpret CEO responses as deceptive.", "elementsJson": [ "paragraph", "quote_block", "footnote" ], "metadataConfidence": 0.95, "imagePath": null, "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-40e2965928db/12", "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-40e2965928db", "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-40e2965928db.json", "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-40e2965928db#slide-12", "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Two of the highest-risk behaviors, unsurprisingly, are denial and attack.", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Visual emphasis", "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-70f3-714d-84be-b6dd3366fdd1", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.4, "w": 0.86, "x": 0.07, "y": 0.52 }, "kind": "list", "text": "“...there is no shift in gears. It’s your perception of reality.”\n“I caution the Street from trying to create something out of nothing.”\n“There’s absolutely, categorically no impact of any technologies, methodologies, or competitive dynamics on the decline in Q3...the facts are the facts.”\n“I want to make it crystal clear. We have not seen any fundamental or competitive dynamics... Let me repeat it again, there has not been or we have not seen any fundamental or competitive dynamics...”\n“Guys, I want to be crystal clear...abdominal NRP does not impact OCS.”\n“There is no clear reason for these declines other than normal variability.”\n“Listen, we’re just coming out of a quarter where transplant volumes declined...”\n“I repeat again, our share in heart and liver...remain unchanged.”", "attrs": null, "subkind": "bullet", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "aab16274-d3c7-4503-8957-bd4187db801f", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.86, "x": 0.07, "y": 0.34 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The OPCO analyst asked a question on the Q3 call, and we note the CEO’s replies below: “So Waleed, I’d be remiss...quite a shock...trying to connect all your comments together, I confess I’m still struggling to understand...I’m curious, there seems to have been a break in your trajectory of share gain....”", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "b2f66830-d7c5-4064-8c26-e19db8beba5f", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.86, "x": 0.07, "y": 0.22 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "As short-sellers, we are partial to books like Spy The Lie, by ex-CIA interrogators on spotting deception. Skim it on your Kindle en route to JPM, if you have a 1x1 next week with TransMedics. Two of the highest-risk behaviors, unsurprisingly, are denial and attack.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "d267c89d-3458-48f4-a960-d11c2bbca83c", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.86, "x": 0.07, "y": 0.07 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Investors sense something is afoot, after a spate of recent bad news: a Q3 miss and startling drop in sequential revenue; the CFO fired a month later, after a 10-year tenure; a disastrous Dec investor day and 2025 guide – back-half weighted, naturally.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "fb57eba7-3483-465f-b100-65df4bb0c9c6", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "“So Waleed, I’d be remiss...quite a shock...trying to connect all your comments together, I confess I’m still struggling to understand...I’m curious, there seems to have been a break in your trajectory of share gain....” — OPCO Analyst; “...there is no shift in gears. It’s your perception of reality.” — CEO Waleed Hassanein; “I caution the Street from trying to create something out of nothing.” — CEO Waleed Hassanein; “There’s absolutely, categorically no impact of any technologies, methodologies, or competitive dynamics on the decline in Q3...the facts are the facts.” — CEO Waleed Hassanein; “I want to make it crystal clear. We have not seen any fundamental or competitive dynamics... Let me repeat it again, there has not been or we have not seen any fundamental or competitive dynamics...” — CEO Waleed Hassanein; “Guys, I want to be crystal clear...abdominal NRP does not impact OCS.” — CEO Waleed Hassanein; “There is no clear reason for these declines other than normal variability.” — CEO Waleed Hassanein; “Listen, we’re just coming out of a quarter where transplant volumes declined...” — CEO Waleed Hassanein; “I repeat again, our share in heart and liver...remain unchanged.” — CEO Waleed Hassanein", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Authority citation", "toolSlug": "authority-citation", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-70f3-714d-84be-bb6ce54e721f", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.07, "y": 0.96 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Scorpion Capital consultation calls with experts; Capital IQ earnings call transcripts", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "bff5ee38-d824-4379-a892-b4363ab0028a", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.5, "x": 0.07, "y": 0.48 }, "kind": "title", "text": "TransMedics Q3 earnings call, Oct 28, 2024 – CEO Waleed Hassanein", "attrs": null, "subkind": "subtitle", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "ae2bb926-dc0c-47e8-86fb-00e12ba59cbe", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "name": "antagonist-introduction", "slug": null, "matchId": "15973f97-4960-4431-a5ac-bd094bdfd287", "evidence": "Framing the CEO's responses as 'denial and attack' based on 'Spy The Lie' methodology.", "confidence": 0.85 } ], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 20, "from": 11, "beatId": "c9fa8ec4-9e59-45eb-9317-74367547147c", "arcName": "Overcoming the Monster", "arcSlug": "overcoming-monster", "beatName": "Critique of TransMedics Group Inc.", "beatSlug": null, "evidence": "The section presents a critical analysis of TransMedics Group Inc.'s practices and leadership.", "position": 0, "confidence": 0.8, "parentBeatName": null, "parentBeatSlug": null }, { "to": 30, "from": 12, "beatId": "072007ec-5fd3-4416-b852-0e181a364efd", "arcName": "Overcoming the Monster", "arcSlug": "overcoming-monster", "beatName": "Exposure of Contradictions", "beatSlug": null, "evidence": "The section highlights contradictions in TransMedics Group Inc.'s statements and actions.", "position": 1, "confidence": 0.8, "parentBeatName": null, "parentBeatSlug": null } ], "loops": [], "imagePathAlt": null, "thumbSrc": null, "thumbSrcAlt": null, "locked": true }