{ "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-3e539d2729fa", "docSlug": "a8e4eb348e06", "documentTitle": "Lasertec Corporation (6920)", "authorId": "58_Scorpion_Capital", "authorName": "Scorpion Capital", "documentKindSlug": "research-note", "documentKindLabel": "Research note", "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller", "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller", "presentationDate": "2024-06-05 00:00:00", "orientation": "landscape", "aspectRatio": 1.3333334, "pageNumber": 47, "pageCount": 56, "prevPage": 46, "nextPage": 48, "slideType": "key_takeaways", "function": "summarize", "density": "dense", "nDataPoints": 0, "notes": "The slide uses anecdotal evidence from industry sources to build a bearish case against Lasertec.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "bullet_list" ], "metadataConfidence": 1, "imagePath": null, "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-3e539d2729fa/47", "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-3e539d2729fa", "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-3e539d2729fa.json", "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-3e539d2729fa#slide-47", "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "KLA's impending launch of an EUV actinic patterned mask inspection tool will be catastrophic for Lasertec", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Visual emphasis", "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-25b2-736e-8e5e-b5abb26f5415", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.18, "w": 0.86, "x": 0.07, "y": 0.57 }, "kind": "list", "text": "One of the KLA sources noted that during his leadership role in their EUV mask inspection group, key Lasertec customers were coming “crying” to KLA and “begging us to expedite”: “I’m talking about customers coming to KLA... saying, guys, we need you to develop this tool...P2 can only be done by a clean tool...they were really begging us to expedite.” A second KLA source – an ex-director of engineering also in the EUV division – confirmed that “customers would really like KLA on this” – the Lasertec tool “has a lot of issues” and “doesn’t work well...that’s why customers want KLA to make a reliable tool.”", "attrs": null, "subkind": "bullet", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "3f16744b-c289-4c36-b90f-0d17019f8a74", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.18, "w": 0.86, "x": 0.07, "y": 0.38 }, "kind": "list", "text": "All three KLA sources we interviewed, as well as every major customer and other experts, stated that KLA’s market entry will be catastrophic for Lasertec’s EUV business. One stated “they will struggle...extremely hard to compete with KLA...I don’t think Lasertec can pull it out in EUV [versus KLA]” – and that “they will disappear in five years” if they don’t “re-engineer the tool [with] a simple source.” A second indicated that “people would love to buy from KLA...there is no question about that...even if [their tool] were crap, then the customer would love to have a second supplier...they will get the orders, that’s for sure.”", "attrs": null, "subkind": "bullet", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "72b61c9f-b27f-413f-88c8-4af6ff0de293", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.18, "w": 0.86, "x": 0.07, "y": 0.2 }, "kind": "list", "text": "The “better source” the EUV lithography referred to is xenon-based. The ex-KLA executive corroborated that “the KLA xenon works,” using “frozen xenon gas with IR laser as the originator,” unlike Lasertec’s Ushio or Isteq tin-based sources which he stated are a failure. He predicted that the impact on Lasertec would be devastating, with KLA winning each step of EUV mask inspection, in addition to creating brutal price pressure as customers like TSMC used KLA’s entry to crush Lasertec’s pricing: “TSMC will play hard...KLA will win the P2 and P3 [inspection]...that’s for the mask shop.” As KLA’s Teron DUV tools already have a monopoly in P1, KLA would own the mask shop.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "bullet", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "84efad8c-97bc-4cfc-b9ea-493054d9fdaa", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.18, "w": 0.86, "x": 0.07, "y": 0.76 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Non-KLA sources reiterated the same doomsday scenario for Lasertec. A longtime semiconductor equipment executive in Japan – friendly with Lasertec’s CEO – stated that “everything could turn around in a second if KLA comes out with a superior tool...they’re out of business, basically.” The executive replied “correct” when we asked if it’s “game over” when KLA comes out with their product. He expressed skepticism of Lasertec’s stock and the average Japanese investor’s lack of understanding of EUV: “they were picked up by mass media newspapers and TV...that’s why they became popular...average people walking on the street have no idea what EUV is.”", "attrs": null, "subkind": "bullet", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "e842139e-c527-4556-bee9-2077dcd7acba", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "TSMC will play hard...KLA will win the P2 and P3 [inspection]...that's for the mask shop. — Ex-KLA executive. they will struggle...extremely hard to compete with KLA...I don't think Lasertec can pull it out in EUV [versus KLA] — KLA source. people would love to buy from KLA...there is no question about that...even if [their tool] were crap, then the customer would love to have a second supplier...they will get the orders, that's for sure. — KLA source. I'm talking about customers coming to KLA and \"begging us to expedite\": \"I'm talking about customers coming to KLA...saying, guys, we need you to develop this tool...P2 can only be done by a clean tool...they were really begging us to expedite.\" — KLA source. has a lot of issues...doesn't work well...that's why customers want KLA to make a reliable tool. — Ex-director of engineering. everything could turn around in a second if KLA comes out with a superior tool...they're out of business, basically. — Longtime semiconductor executive in Japan. they were picked up by mass media newspapers and TV...that's why they became popular...average people walking on the street have no idea what EUV is. — Longtime semiconductor executive in Japan.", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Authority citation", "toolSlug": "authority-citation", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-25b2-736e-8e5e-bbdb41471bc7", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.86, "x": 0.07, "y": 0.12 }, "kind": "title", "text": "9. KLA’s impending launch of an EUV actinic patterned mask inspection tool will be catastrophic for Lasertec (cont’d)", "attrs": null, "subkind": "action-title", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "5502d32d-8e55-42af-9b53-4c04db37b143", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.41, "x": 0.07, "y": 0.07 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Detailed summary / key findings", "attrs": null, "subkind": "headline", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "70da8049-32f1-4a71-ace2-1c0d6722ce26", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [ { "name": "List presentation", "slug": "list-presentation", "agent": null, "layer": "slide", "matchId": "76a8f0c9-239a-4083-8e41-8e56540ccc21", "evidence": "The slide contains multiple list/bullet point components.", "confidence": 0.7 } ], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 56, "from": 31, "beatId": "3f095ed5-de2f-4a64-bb32-5a79c5566416", "arcName": "Overcoming the Monster", "arcSlug": "overcoming-monster", "beatName": "The Victory", "beatSlug": "overcoming-monster-the-victory", "evidence": "Conclusion and summary of Lasertec's dire situation", "position": 2, "confidence": 0.8, "parentBeatName": "Turn", "parentBeatSlug": "turn" } ], "loops": [], "imagePathAlt": null, "thumbSrc": null, "thumbSrcAlt": null, "locked": true }