{ "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-3e539d2729fa", "docSlug": "a8e4eb348e06", "documentTitle": "Lasertec Corporation (6920)", "authorId": "58_Scorpion_Capital", "authorName": "Scorpion Capital", "documentKindSlug": "research-note", "documentKindLabel": "Research note", "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller", "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller", "presentationDate": "2024-06-05 00:00:00", "orientation": "landscape", "aspectRatio": 1.3333334, "pageNumber": 22, "pageCount": 56, "prevPage": 21, "nextPage": 23, "slideType": "key_takeaways", "function": "summarize", "density": "overcrowded", "nDataPoints": 8, "notes": "The slide uses expert testimony to frame Lasertec's technical roadmap as a failure, specifically highlighting the inadequacy of their R&D investment compared to ASML/Cymer.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "bullet_list" ], "metadataConfidence": 0.95, "imagePath": null, "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-3e539d2729fa/22", "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-3e539d2729fa", "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-3e539d2729fa.json", "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-3e539d2729fa#slide-22", "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Lasertec “cannot deliver” on their purported $2 billion backlog due to their lack of a properly functioning EUV light source: “they have a $2 billion backlog, which means that they probably have orders for 40 or 50 systems that they cannot deliver right now.”", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Visual emphasis", "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-25b2-736e-8e5d-54f9bc0ed05f", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.2, "w": 0.85, "x": 0.07, "y": 0.7 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The expert detailed Lasertec’s history of struggling with different light source suppliers and repeatedly failing, stating that they failed to scale from the simple Xenon-based EUV source they procured from Energetiq for their blank inspection tool, as actinic mask inspection is more complex: “the optics are much more complicated and they need significantly more light…that’s why they are struggling…they moved to Ushio…they’re still struggling…they have to move to something else.” He stated that Lasertec “cannot deliver” on their purported $2 billion backlog due to their lack of a properly functioning EUV light source: “they have a $2 billion backlog, which means that they probably have orders for 40 or 50 systems that they cannot deliver right now.”", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "17880c80-2769-43f2-8d87-f4023fb4cc1b", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.85, "x": 0.07, "y": 0.41 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The ex-Cymer scientist stated that ASML initially began with Ushio’s source in 2009 but that it was a total failure: “it didn’t work…they screwed it up”; the Ushio source “has a lot of problems” such as tin-based “discharge that…creates a lot of junk…nearby optics get literally covered in tin pretty quickly” – “still way more dirty than everybody wants it.” He detailed the difficulty of developing a working source through ASML’s failures for a decade, even years after spending billions on Cymer – illustrating Lasertec’s insurmountable EUV light source problem.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "2bc37fa8-10de-4b78-9880-c4b1a58c2f57", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.85, "x": 0.07, "y": 0.57 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The Cymer expert also slammed the “new” Urashima source that Lasertec has licensed from Isteq, and we view his color as particularly damning given his intimate knowledge of Isteq and its technology. He stated that neither Lasertec nor Isteq has ever shown this source works and that it’s just a little lab experiment: “they did not show anything – I am really skeptical”; “as is, it would not work…it’s nothing but a lab prototype, slightly more than an idea.”", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "b03d62fc-668c-4f96-8dda-d8ec346e74f4", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.2, "w": 0.85, "x": 0.07, "y": 0.2 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "In comparison to the 1,300 staff at ASML’s EUV source group and the $4B it spent on Cymer plus billions more in additional R&D, Lasertec is small with only 859 total employees in 2023, and historically invested little in R&D – generally $9MM to $15MM in R&D in the years preceding its EUV market entry in 2019. It strains credibility that Lasertec was able to develop a reliable EUV source with less than 1% of what Cymer/ASML spent. Ushio – its EUV light source supplier – spends $80-90MM annually on R&D, but EUV sources are a small percentage of its revenue and EUV R&D expenditure would have been a tiny fraction of the total. Isteq, which developed Lasertec’s “new” Urashima EUV source is little more than a Russia/Netherlands-based science project with only 12 employees on LinkedIn.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "bef8f431-7d46-4d25-9a40-8a535325494b", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "“it didn't work...they screwed it up”; the Ushio source “has a lot of problems” such as tin-based “discharge that...creates a lot of junk...nearby optics get literally covered in tin pretty quickly” — Ex-Cymer scientist. “they did not show anything – I am really skeptical”; “as is, it would not work...it’s nothing but a lab prototype, slightly more than an idea.” — Cymer expert.", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Authority citation", "toolSlug": "authority-citation", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-25b2-736e-8e5d-5806296b6a46", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.85, "x": 0.07, "y": 0.12 }, "kind": "title", "text": "5. Lasertec’s EUV ambitions have always been vaporous given the impossibility of developing an EUV light source without investing USD billions (cont’d)", "attrs": null, "subkind": "action-title", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "ffb3683a-4c50-4d49-b764-1925ac7ee930", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.07, "y": 0.07 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Detailed summary / key findings", "attrs": null, "subkind": "headline", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "57341c1b-9024-4ef8-a247-18c98354ac49", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [ { "name": "Story Moments", "slug": "story-moments", "agent": "Storyteller", "layer": "slide", "matchId": "142e27d6-4146-4cf1-81c5-bc918deb3694", "evidence": "The expert detailed Lasertec’s history of struggling with different light source suppliers and repeatedly failing, stating that they failed to scale from the simple Xenon-based EUV source they procure.", "confidence": 0.6 } ], "frameworks": [ { "name": "villain_critique", "slug": null, "matchId": "682a4213-3225-4459-bae7-65f81839b3c0", "evidence": "The slide systematically dismantles Lasertec's technical credibility using expert testimony and comparative data.", "confidence": 0.9 } ], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 30, "from": 11, "beatId": "ddd47c98-0c7b-4601-b841-6a759c3fbbf3", "arcName": "Overcoming the Monster", "arcSlug": "overcoming-monster", "beatName": "The Struggle", "beatSlug": "overcoming-monster-the-struggle", "evidence": "Detailed explanation of Lasertec's product flaws and customer dissatisfaction", "position": 1, "confidence": 0.8, "parentBeatName": "Development", "parentBeatSlug": "development" } ], "loops": [ { "to": 40, "from": 20, "name": "Cost Of Inaction", "slug": "27-cost-of-inaction", "bestFor": "Urgent budget requests, compliance, risk mitigation", "matchId": "905755ed-1026-45f4-a058-5cbb7c876733", "evidence": "The document emphasizes the severe consequences of ignoring Lasertec's problems", "position": 1, "objective": "Highlight the consequences of inaction regarding Lasertec's issues", "structure": "The Status Quo -> The Hidden Costs Accumulating -> The Future State of Inaction -> The Tipping Point", "confidence": 0.6, "description": "Quantify what happens if the audience does nothing" } ], "imagePathAlt": null, "thumbSrc": null, "thumbSrcAlt": null, "locked": true }