{ "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-3bcd52c6e583", "docSlug": "f06b0b5d2079", "documentTitle": "Soleno Therapeutics (SLNO)", "authorId": "58_Scorpion_Capital", "authorName": "Scorpion Capital", "documentKindSlug": "activist-deck", "documentKindLabel": "Activist deck", "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller", "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller", "presentationDate": "2025-08-15 00:00:00", "orientation": "landscape", "aspectRatio": 1.3333334, "pageNumber": 278, "pageCount": 415, "prevPage": 277, "nextPage": 279, "slideType": "preempt_rebuttal", "function": "preempt_rebuttal", "density": "overcrowded", "nDataPoints": 2, "notes": "The slide uses a Q&A format to highlight negative expert sentiment regarding commercial viability.", "elementsJson": [ "paragraph", "quote_block" ], "metadataConfidence": 0.95, "imagePath": null, "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-3bcd52c6e583/278", "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-3bcd52c6e583", "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-3bcd52c6e583.json", "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-3bcd52c6e583#slide-278", "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "The ex-employee indicated that Soleno’s best-case TAM is a mere 10-15% of PWS patients, as younger patients’ hyperphagia is manageable; and older patients tend to be institutionalized and on Medicaid, which won’t pay, leaving Soleno with a small potential niche in the middle.", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Visual emphasis", "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-64ce-7561-b2ae-8979a3d4bae0", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.86, "x": 0.07, "y": 0.52 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Maximum TAM is 10-15% of PWS patients; Soleno lacks rare disease experience; GLP competition", "attrs": null, "subkind": "bullet", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "8f8da89e-65c6-4013-8558-2f8068f2fd51", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.35, "w": 0.86, "x": 0.07, "y": 0.58 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Q&A transcript excerpts highlighting expert skepticism regarding market size, insurance coverage, and management experience.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "28d53934-4c55-414d-9137-cd8ef76eec9b", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.86, "x": 0.07, "y": 0.07 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The ex-employee indicated that Soleno’s best-case TAM is a mere 10-15% of PWS patients, as younger patients’ hyperphagia is manageable; and older patients tend to be institutionalized and on Medicaid, which won’t pay, leaving Soleno with a small potential niche in the middle.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "7c2ae44e-6f9a-459e-811c-4a2f804f25d8", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.86, "x": 0.07, "y": 0.22 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Among other challenges, the ex-employee indicated that insurers will require GLP-1’s instead as they’re much cheaper; Soleno lacks rare disease commercialization experience – “the chief commercial officer had no experience in rare disease...does that tell you anything?”", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "a7af79c1-f52d-451b-9203-dfd17ebc5ef2", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.86, "x": 0.07, "y": 0.37 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "“everybody looks at 1 in 100,000 and says oh well, that’s still a pretty good subset if we get 50% of it...but when you really look at the data and fully understand what subset of that you may get, it just becomes a much smaller number”; “so yeah, maybe as much 10% to 15% but I don’t think it’s beyond that.”", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "dbbcf409-9661-4e10-b772-ae70b5b661d6", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "“the chief commercial officer had no experience in rare disease...does that tell you anything?”; “everybody looks at 1 in 100,000 and says oh well, that’s still a pretty good subset if we get 50% of it...but when you really look at the data and fully understand what subset of that you may get, it just becomes a much smaller number”; “so yeah, maybe as much 10% to 15% but I don’t think it’s beyond that.” — Formerly in a senior medical affairs role at Soleno", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Authority citation", "toolSlug": "authority-citation", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-64ce-7561-b2ae-8ed193d79b5b", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.3, "x": 0.07, "y": 0.95 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Scorpion Capital consultation calls with experts", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "7d26090a-1bcb-4501-8c29-bf28b9b3051a", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "name": "preempt_rebuttal", "slug": null, "matchId": "2f2b5fa8-6f87-499b-97c6-58b4ab26dfdc", "evidence": "Uses expert testimony to undermine the company's TAM assumptions.", "confidence": 0.9 } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "imagePathAlt": null, "thumbSrc": null, "thumbSrcAlt": null, "locked": true }