{ "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-32b620517ee9", "docSlug": "2ec39f20dd86", "documentTitle": "QuantumScape (QS)", "authorId": "58_Scorpion_Capital", "authorName": "Scorpion Capital", "documentKindSlug": "activist-deck", "documentKindLabel": "Activist deck", "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller", "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller", "presentationDate": "2021-04-15 00:00:00", "orientation": "landscape", "aspectRatio": 1.3333334, "pageNumber": 187, "pageCount": 188, "prevPage": 186, "nextPage": 188, "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "function": "expose_contradiction", "density": "overcrowded", "nDataPoints": 5, "notes": "Uses a quote from a VW employee to validate the argument.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "quote_block", "footnote" ], "metadataConfidence": 1, "imagePath": null, "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-32b620517ee9/187", "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-32b620517ee9", "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-32b620517ee9.json", "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-32b620517ee9#slide-187", "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Quantumscape's projection of ~$10B in revenue booked in 2027/28 means that VW has to commit to substantial purchases of solid-state batteries by 2022/23 – an absurd notion, given the VW concerns and questions we detailed earlier.", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Visual emphasis", "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd952-f5d1-75b6-b066-c6a98351a0e7", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "revenue: $10B", "attrs": null, "subkind": "primary", "toolName": "Quantification", "toolSlug": "quantification", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd952-f5d1-75b6-b066-cfe681144e16", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.08 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Our VW consults indicate that suppliers and contracts are already locked in for next 5 years – and don't include solid-state batteries. Given 5-year OEM roadmaps, VW must commit to ~$10B in QS batteries within a year or two for 2027/2028 revenue ramp and timeline to be true – a delusion, given VW skepticism of QS lab-scale cells.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "6409a97c-67ec-492f-9714-5bd6acbcb8ee", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.25 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We fail to see how QS will ramp sales to $275MM in 5 years and to $3.2B and $6.4B in the 2 years thereafter, given 5 year lead times in the auto industry. Quantumscape's projection of ~$10B in revenue booked in 2027/28 means that VW has to commit to substantial purchases of solid-state batteries by 2022/23 – an absurd notion, given the VW concerns and questions we detailed earlier.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "6e2f9f7f-59d0-4fab-abad-89edf60f8442", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.45 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "First of all, for the next five years, at least until 2025/2026, the contracts and roadmap in the entire automotive industry, maybe except for Tesla, but everybody else who has an established system and supply chain, it's all set already. I can tell you exactly what cars with which battery will be produced and sold in 2025, and it's definitely not - we don't have the solid-state battery in the pipeline.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "testimonial", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "ef7bfc7e-1ae1-445b-bb3a-a512a617bc48", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "First of all, for the next five years, at least until 2025/2026, the contracts and roadmap in the entire automotive industry, maybe except for Tesla, but everybody else who has an established system and supply chain, it’s all set already. I can tell you exactly what cars with which battery will be produced and sold in 2025, and it’s definitely not - we don’t have the solid-state battery in the pipeline. — VW employee", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Authority citation", "toolSlug": "authority-citation", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd952-f5d1-75b6-b066-caa056c7eca7", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.3, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.65 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Scorpion Capital consultation calls with experts", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "cbdf13a4-6654-4663-b1b1-fdc066853b67", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.5, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.04 }, "kind": "title", "text": "11) A fake timeline and fake projections to grease the pump", "attrs": null, "subkind": "headline", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "aa205729-9bd9-485d-ad10-d1bf8ff744d0", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "name": "ceo-quote-contradiction", "slug": null, "matchId": "6cef9cf3-3a49-4742-bf69-1c453485bf82", "evidence": "Uses a quote to contradict the company's public projections.", "confidence": 0.9 } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [ { "to": 188, "from": 150, "name": "Cost Of Inaction", "slug": "27-cost-of-inaction", "bestFor": "Urgent budget requests, compliance, risk mitigation", "matchId": "30a3a7d5-9626-4db4-85ed-defeed0ba9d5", "evidence": "The document implies that investors may face significant losses if they do not take action.", "position": 1, "objective": "The cost of inaction for investors", "structure": "The Status Quo -> The Hidden Costs Accumulating -> The Future State of Inaction -> The Tipping Point", "confidence": 0.6, "description": "Quantify what happens if the audience does nothing" } ], "imagePathAlt": null, "thumbSrc": null, "thumbSrcAlt": null, "locked": true }