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  "documentTitle": "IonQ Inc. (IONQ)",
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  "authorName": "Scorpion Capital",
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  "presentationDate": "2022-05-03 00:00:00",
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  "notes": "Uses expert testimony to undermine the company's technical roadmap.",
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      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Difficulty in scaling qubits is exponential, not linear; took three years to go from 5 to 11 qubits, and thousands are needed",
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      "text": "IonQ’s machine is prone to errors that are currently an unsolvable problem that prevents them from scaling to the number of qubits required to be useful",
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      "text": "The difficulty of going to 100 or 500 or thousands of qubits, it doesn't scale linearly. It's not just twice as hard to do 1000 qubits compared to 500.",
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      "text": "Two former employees echoed the color on the preceding pages that the problem is basically unsolvable. One stated that it's “a real hurdle to imagine scaling these things up right now” and that the “jury’s really still out.” A second elaborated that the difficulty scales exponentially, not linearly – that is, getting to 1000 is not simply twice as hard as getting to 500 – and offered a sobering anecdote about it taking 3 years just to go from 5 to 11 qubits.",
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      "text": "“The difficulty of going to 100 or 500 or thousands of qubits, it doesn’t scale linearly... I can tell you my experience going from 5 to 11, took about three years of work.” – Former IonQ employee, senior member of technical staff",
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      "text": "“Basically, every ion is talking to every other ion... no one has really demonstrated that that theory has been actualized... it's a real hurdle to imagine scaling these things up right now.” – Former IonQ employee, physicist",
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      "text": "“Basically, every ion is talking to every other ion, so if one ion is doing something that it's not quite supposed to be doing, that induces basically an error in every other ion. And there are theoretical ways that potentially you can get around that, but no one has really demonstrated that that theory has been actualized in any meaningful way, so it's a real hurdle to imagine scaling these things up right now.” — Former IonQ employee, physicist; “The difficulty of going to 100 or 500 or thousands of qubits, it doesn't scale linearly. It's not just twice as hard to do 1000 qubits compared to 500. I can tell you my experience going from 5 to 11 and from 5 to 11, took about three years of work.” — Former IonQ employee, senior member of technical staff",
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      "text": "Source: Scorpion Capital consultation calls with experts",
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      "text": "Ex-employees elaborated on the fatal technical dilemma in which IonQ is trapped, pun intended: its machine can't do anything useful without orders of magnitude more qubits, but every qubit added introduces massive errors given the nature of the technology.",
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