{ "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-1cc056790523", "docSlug": "340e94a59fc0", "documentTitle": "IonQ Inc. (IONQ)", "authorId": "58_Scorpion_Capital", "authorName": "Scorpion Capital", "documentKindSlug": "activist-deck", "documentKindLabel": "Activist deck", "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller", "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller", "presentationDate": "2022-05-03 00:00:00", "orientation": "landscape", "aspectRatio": 1.2941177, "pageNumber": 106, "pageCount": 183, "prevPage": 105, "nextPage": 107, "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "function": "expose_contradiction", "density": "overcrowded", "nDataPoints": 4, "notes": "The slide uses direct quotes from a 'leading expert' to undermine the credibility of IonQ's co-founder Chris Monroe.", "elementsJson": [ "paragraph", "quote_block", "footnote" ], "metadataConfidence": 0.95, "imagePath": null, "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-1cc056790523/106", "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-1cc056790523", "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-1cc056790523.json", "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-1cc056790523#slide-106", "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "IonQ’s error rates need to be 100 times lower than they are now, and cast it as a physics problem with no way out: “don’t see how they’re going to get there”; “I just don’t see how it’s going to work.”", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Visual emphasis", "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-64d2-7657-bbe4-c1887f6ca328", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.35 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Red flag that IonQ’s progress on error rates has stalled and that error rates are “not that good”", "attrs": null, "subkind": "bullet", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "221fc13a-814a-4a6c-9cbd-525fe07c62f9", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.65 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Error rates need to be 100 times lower than what they are now; implies it’s an unsolvable physics problem", "attrs": null, "subkind": "bullet", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "872bd06d-792a-47d6-9aad-eb3ebd0a21fe", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.08 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "As a leading figure in the field and a friend of IonQ’s co-founder Chris Monroe, we find his criticism to be withering. He noted that IonQ’s progress on error rates has stalled - “that concerns me” and is “a real issue” – and mocked Monroe’s claims to the contrary. He laid out an unsolvable technical dilemma: that IonQ needs vastly more qubits to be useful, but that each new qubit escalates the error rate. He added that IonQ’s error rates need to be 100 times lower than they are now, and cast it as a physics problem with no way out: “don’t see how they’re going to get there”; “I just don’t see how it’s going to work.”", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "3303430f-9699-41da-bd10-6002f7b6dbf2", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.4 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "“The fact that they got 2% errors with 11 qubits in a trap might be an improvement because it might have been five years ago; it was that kind of performance out of 2 or 3 qubits. And to get it at 11, that’s harder, and that’s good. But you can kind of see it’s not this amazingly rapid improvement. It’s slow; it’s difficult, it’s not quite sure exactly what’s happening there. That concerns me. You want to be making your qubits better over time. And this is especially weird for IonQ because I know that Chris has gone out and given scientific talks, talking about how ions are perfect, they’re atomic clocks, blah-blah-blah, and they make it sound like they potentially have tiny tiny error rates. But one can argue that if you look at the actual progress, especially on two-qubit gates, not that good. This is a real issue.” – Leading expert in quantum computing", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "4b46cfb6-c600-46a9-b0bd-31f5b54ce52a", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.7 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "“I think you need to have between 50 and 100 qubits with errors that are between .01% and .03%. It’s more than that, but let’s just take those two numbers. Now, 50 to 100 qubits is beyond what they can do. I don’t see how they’re going to get there with their current system. That two-qubit error is maybe 100 times lower than what they’re seeing now, and I know that the errors are going to get worse when they scale it up to more qubits. The progress on errors has been really slow. I just don’t see how it’s going to work. I don’t think it’s five years. Is it 10 years? Maybe. Maybe they have a bunch of ideas, but no, I don’t see that. Those are two fundamentally hard problems that tend to push on each other. If you have more qubits, your gate errors get worse. I just don’t even see how they’re going to get beyond 20, 30, 40 qubits in their trap. Now, they have ideas of this optical communication between traps, but that looks really problematic in its own mind. That looks really hard.” – Leading expert in quantum computing", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "53b58584-02d4-4c4b-9b37-94fac3f7d62c", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "“The fact that they got 2% errors with 11 qubits in a trap might be an improvement because it might have been five years ago; it was that kind of performance out of 2 or 3 qubits. And to get it at 11, that’s harder, and that’s good. But you can kind of see it’s not this amazingly rapid improvement. It’s slow; it’s difficult, it’s not quite sure exactly what’s happening there. That concerns me.” — Leading expert in quantum computing; “I don’t see how they’re going to get there with their current system. That two-qubit error is maybe 100 times lower than what they’re seeing now, and I know that the errors are going to get worse when they scale it up to more qubits. The progress on errors has been really slow. I just don’t see how it’s going to work.” — Leading expert in quantum computing", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Authority citation", "toolSlug": "authority-citation", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-64d2-7657-bbe4-c7efe0cd0979", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.3, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.96 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Scorpion Capital consultation calls with experts", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "d55f52ff-7f46-4701-a9ea-9ec112624188", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "name": "ceo-quote-contradiction", "slug": null, "matchId": "d27619db-add5-4667-b065-2eacd052c17c", "evidence": "Contrasting the co-founder's public claims with expert testimony on technical failure.", "confidence": 0.9 } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "imagePathAlt": null, "thumbSrc": null, "thumbSrcAlt": null, "locked": true }