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  "docSlug": "a70fecd99534",
  "documentTitle": "Berkeley Lights (BLI)",
  "authorId": "58_Scorpion_Capital",
  "authorName": "Scorpion Capital",
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  "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller",
  "presentationDate": "2021-09-15 00:00:00",
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  "pageNumber": 28,
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  "notes": "Uses a 'finger in the dike' metaphor to describe the guidance; compares BLI to FLDM (Fluidigm) as a valuation benchmark.",
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      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "BLI 2021 guidance of $90-100MM requires all-time record revenue in Q3 and Q4 – an implausibly sharp spike from a flat trend. \"Back half weighted\" is the usual canard of companies about to miss.",
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      "text": "Total Revenue by Quarter",
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      "text": "Total Revenue: $90-100MM",
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      "text": "We further examined the company’s 2021 guidance of $90-100MM, which BLI reiterated in August. In our opinion, the guidance is an illusion that BLI simply cannot meet - a finger in the dike while insiders continue to sell - given recent quarterly performance and other red flags that suggest an underlying deterioration. We expect BLI to slash 2021 guidance or miss badly in Q3/Q4. The sequence of events is likely to be typical of the genre: the lack of growth becomes impossible for investors to overlook, and the stock accelerates its inevitable march toward the 4X sales multiple and ~$5 level at which a no-growth microfluidics comp like FLDM trades.",
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      "text": "Source: Scorpion Capital analysis and estimates; BLI SEC filings and press releases; Capital IQ data",
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      "kind": "title",
      "text": "1) Introduction to the real Berkeley Lights; warning signs of a looming collapse and other red flags",
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