{
  "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-101b5bfde4b8",
  "docSlug": "a70fecd99534",
  "documentTitle": "Berkeley Lights (BLI)",
  "authorId": "58_Scorpion_Capital",
  "authorName": "Scorpion Capital",
  "documentKindSlug": "research-note",
  "documentKindLabel": "Research note",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller",
  "presentationDate": "2021-09-15 00:00:00",
  "orientation": "landscape",
  "aspectRatio": 1.2941177,
  "pageNumber": 136,
  "pageCount": 158,
  "prevPage": 135,
  "nextPage": 137,
  "slideType": "villain_critique",
  "function": "expose_contradiction",
  "density": "dense",
  "nDataPoints": 6,
  "notes": "The slide uses expert testimony to undermine the company's market sizing claims.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "paragraph",
    "callout_box",
    "footnote"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-101b5bfde4b8/136",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-101b5bfde4b8",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-101b5bfde4b8.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-101b5bfde4b8#slide-136",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Virtually every former employee we interviewed indicated BLI's total addressable market is negligible.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Visual emphasis",
      "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd953-2042-70a9-a1af-11503afe8f42",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.08,
        "w": 0.9,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.45
      },
      "kind": "list",
      "text": "TAM numbers BLI promotes are \"ridiculous\"; didn't want to hear accurate figures from employees internally",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bullet",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "73864983-894f-468c-a199-8f831c829d59",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.08,
        "w": 0.9,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.7
      },
      "kind": "list",
      "text": "TAM is no more than \"a couple of hundred\" machines worldwide – roughly $400MM at $2MM price point; most pharma companies can easily outsource to a CRO and don't need a machine themselves",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bullet",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "94d1fff1-ef7d-4424-b8cd-ff8d3ad658a5",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.08,
        "w": 0.9,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.55
      },
      "kind": "list",
      "text": "Can't sell more than 300 machines over the next 5 years in total, equivalent to $600MM in total or about $125MM/year at $2MM per machine; could be as low as 30-40 machines per year",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bullet",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "c24b37fb-c5ed-426b-be16-422ed520e14d",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.15,
        "w": 0.9,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.1
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "Virtually every former employee we interviewed indicated BLI's total addressable market is negligible. An ex-executive stated that the TAM numbers BLI promotes are \"ridiculous\"; that \"they know better\"; and that they didn't want to hear \"more accurate numbers.\"",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "f1ba2cc3-85b2-49d6-9f18-ea34e489f181",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "quote",
      "text": "\"These ridiculous TAM numbers that are being thrown around and they know better. I showed them more accurate numbers when I was there but it wasn't a message that they liked very much.\" — Former BLI executive",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Authority citation",
      "toolSlug": "authority-citation",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd953-2042-70a9-a1af-1527a3a0b68f",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.02,
        "w": 0.3,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.96
      },
      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "Source: Scorpion Capital consultation calls with experts",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "20e6e9b1-bf92-42aa-8215-e98323e26bd8",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.05,
        "w": 0.9,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.04
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Part 2) Former BLI employees/executives: Total addressable market is negligible",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "10e42880-903b-479d-90c1-caa0c58158fa",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [],
  "frameworks": [
    {
      "name": "fraud-exposure",
      "slug": null,
      "matchId": "ae24df09-fe1d-4c4d-be8d-d4f5500170bc",
      "evidence": "Uses expert testimony to contradict company public claims",
      "confidence": 0.9
    }
  ],
  "arcBeats": [
    {
      "to": 150,
      "from": 42,
      "beatId": "172d6e2f-be3f-4802-92e5-e7e412ccdabe",
      "arcName": "Overcoming the Monster",
      "arcSlug": "overcoming-monster",
      "beatName": "Testimonials from Customers and Former Employees",
      "beatSlug": null,
      "evidence": "The document presents testimonials from customers and former employees, providing first-hand accounts of the challenges and limitations of Berkeley Lights' product.",
      "position": 2,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "parentBeatName": null,
      "parentBeatSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "loops": [
    {
      "to": 144,
      "from": 136,
      "name": "Quick Win Big Bet",
      "slug": "47-quick-win-big-bet",
      "bestFor": "Transformation planning, 100-day plans, resource allocation",
      "matchId": "3eb28de0-fb75-4045-92e6-38c126678047",
      "evidence": "The document contrasts the potential outcomes of a 'quick win' versus a 'big bet' on Berkeley Lights, highlighting the risks and limitations of investing in the company.",
      "position": 1,
      "objective": "Contrasting the potential outcomes of a 'quick win' versus a 'big bet' on Berkeley Lights",
      "structure": "The Full List -> Quick Wins (Low effort, High impact) -> Big Bets (High effort, High impact) -> Sequenced Roadmap",
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "description": "Separate initiatives into immediate wins and longer-term strategic bets"
    }
  ],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}