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  "documentTitle": "Lasertec Corporation (6920)",
  "authorId": "58_Scorpion_Capital",
  "authorName": "Scorpion Capital",
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  "presentationDate": "2024-06-05 00:00:00",
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  "notes": "The slide uses a combination of narrative critique and comparative data visualization to cast doubt on the company's reported metrics.",
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      "text": "Lasertec’s book-to-bill ratio – the ratio of orders to sales, a common measure in the industry – was regularly above 2 in recent years, hitting a preposterous and unheard of 3, 6, and 16 in some quarters.",
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      "text": "Lasertec vs. ASML Book-to-Bill Ratio, Quarterly",
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      "text": "Lasertec Backlog, Orders, Advances, and Sales By Quarter (JPY millions)",
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      "text": "book-to-bill ratio: 16",
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      "text": "Brokers who cover the stock seem equally enamored of Lasertec’s orders and bookings – even though the figures strain credibility and common sense. Orders in the most recent quarter were the highest in almost two years, and appeared to be the reason the stock jumped after the earnings release. Lasertec’s book-to-bill ratio – the ratio of orders to sales, a common measure in the industry – was regularly above 2 in recent years, hitting a preposterous and unheard of 3, 6, and 16 in some quarters. ASML, for example, has generally hovered around a more realistic ratio of 1, never exceeding 2 even in some heady quarters in 2022. The parabolic spike in Lasertec’s backlog strikes us similarly too good to be true, particularly relative to advances which one would expect to follow as customers provide partial funds up front, yet the gap has widened astronomically.",
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      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "Source: ASML and Lasertec quarterly earnings presentations and filings; Lasertec backlog, sales, and orders are for “semiconductor-related products” per the quarterly IR Excel spreadsheet with financial results and key metrics",
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