{ "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-0f4bec37392f", "docSlug": "f982379e2e48", "documentTitle": "Lasertec Corporation (6920)", "authorId": "58_Scorpion_Capital", "authorName": "Scorpion Capital", "documentKindSlug": "activist-deck", "documentKindLabel": "Activist deck", "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller", "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller", "presentationDate": "2024-06-05 00:00:00", "orientation": "landscape", "aspectRatio": 1.3333334, "pageNumber": 265, "pageCount": 334, "prevPage": 264, "nextPage": 266, "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "function": "expose_contradiction", "density": "dense", "nDataPoints": 12, "notes": "The slide uses a Q&A transcript format to build a case against Lasertec's growth narrative.", "elementsJson": [ "paragraph", "quote_block" ], "metadataConfidence": 0.95, "imagePath": null, "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-0f4bec37392f/265", "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-0f4bec37392f", "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-0f4bec37392f.json", "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-0f4bec37392f#slide-265", "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Samsung stated they pay about $40MM for each Lasertec machine, which implies $80-120MM of revenue at most – insufficient to maintain Lasertec’s growth and valuation as Samsung is one of the three legs of the customer stool they depend on.", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Visual emphasis", "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-78b7-702e-961b-b56c4112d16a", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.55, "w": 0.86, "x": 0.07, "y": 0.34 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Samsung expects to buy about 15-20 ASML EUV scanners per year, implying 4-5 Lasertec ACTIS tools at $40MM each\nQ: “When did Samsung buy the first Lasertec machine? How many EUV machines does Samsung have?”\nA: “Samsung actually bought the first EUV tool very early. They ordered some Lasertec tools for the first time in 2019.”\nQ: “How many ACTIS A150s did Samsung buy per year in the last few years?”\nA: “I think the number of EUV tools they have is 48 as of last year. It shows 25 by 2020, 34 EUV tools by 2021, and 48 by 2022. This year (2023), they are expected to buy 15 more EUV tools. They’ve got 9 Lasertec tools right now at Samsung—9 ABICS and 9 ACTIS.”\nQ: “9 ABICS and 9 ACTIS for how many EUV machines?”\nA: “And 48 EUV tools until last year. But this year, they are adding 15 more EUV tools, so probably around three more Lasertec tools for each, ABICS and ACTIS.”\nQ: “Do you know how much Samsung was paying for the ACTIS A150? Was it $40 million or a different price?”\nA: “The number I have is the price for ACTIS, so that’s $40 million.\nQ: “That’s what you guys were paying at Samsung?”\nA: “Yes. That’s why I have those numbers. I know Intel—they paid $40 million for one ACTIS tool.” - Longtime Samsung executive in leadership role in EUV; worked closely with Lasertec; decision-maker for inspection tools", "attrs": null, "subkind": "bullet", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "5e7ae1e0-5fd5-45e2-942c-8b28801b38c8", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "revenue: $40MM", "attrs": null, "subkind": "primary", "toolName": "Quantification", "toolSlug": "quantification", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-78b7-702e-961b-bf97491e2a91", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.22, "w": 0.86, "x": 0.07, "y": 0.07 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The Samsung executive indicated that they purchased about 10-15 ASML scanners in each of recent years, indicating a ceiling of 2-3 ACTIS EUV machines if that rate holds – which seems unlikely given the flat and now declining quarterly EUV tool shipments recently reported by ASML. Samsung stated they pay about $40MM for each Lasertec machine, which implies $80-120MM of revenue at most – insufficient to maintain Lasertec’s growth and valuation as Samsung is one of the three legs of the customer stool they depend on.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "7e71d084-7ef0-4e7a-af1d-aff45c967ddd", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"They've got 9 Lasertec tools right now at Samsung—9 ABICS and 9 ACTIS.\" ... \"And 48 EUV tools until last year. But this year, they are adding 15 more EUV tools, so probably around three more Lasertec tools for each, ABICS and ACTIS.\" ... \"Yes. That's why I have those numbers. I know Intel—they paid $40 million for one ACTIS tool.\" — Longtime Samsung executive in leadership role in EUV; worked closely with Lasertec; decision-maker for inspection tools", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Authority citation", "toolSlug": "authority-citation", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-78b7-702e-961b-bb2fdf770c4f", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.3, "x": 0.07, "y": 0.94 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Scorpion Capital consultation calls with experts", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "b35c54a2-e091-4184-944c-ce3da8af5957", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "name": "ceo-quote-contradiction", "slug": null, "matchId": "10a1cf6b-afb4-465c-bfba-f70f2c1d361d", "evidence": "Uses expert testimony to contradict company valuation claims", "confidence": 0.9 } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "imagePathAlt": null, "thumbSrc": null, "thumbSrcAlt": null, "locked": true }