{ "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-0f4bec37392f", "docSlug": "f982379e2e48", "documentTitle": "Lasertec Corporation (6920)", "authorId": "58_Scorpion_Capital", "authorName": "Scorpion Capital", "documentKindSlug": "activist-deck", "documentKindLabel": "Activist deck", "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller", "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller", "presentationDate": "2024-06-05 00:00:00", "orientation": "landscape", "aspectRatio": 1.3333334, "pageNumber": 253, "pageCount": 334, "prevPage": 252, "nextPage": 254, "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "function": "expose_contradiction", "density": "dense", "nDataPoints": 0, "notes": "The slide uses a Q&A transcript to validate the thesis that the 5nm transition growth phase is over and future orders are being delayed.", "elementsJson": [ "paragraph", "quote_block", "footnote" ], "metadataConfidence": 0.95, "imagePath": null, "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-0f4bec37392f/253", "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-0f4bec37392f", "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-0f4bec37392f.json", "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9a-0f4bec37392f#slide-253", "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.86, "x": 0.07, "y": 0.45 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "Lasertec’s recent growth driven by EUV transition for 5N and is now over; N3 purchase orders will be delayed", "attrs": null, "subkind": "primary", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "b33e1950-564a-4810-a196-7bcc6496369c", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.35, "w": 0.86, "x": 0.07, "y": 0.07 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Product defects, customer frustration, and exploding inventory naturally indicate that Lasertec’s small EUV market opportunity is exhausted, with little growth for its ACTIS line. We now add further evidence for why its EUV prospects are saturated. Lasertec has only two growth drivers - Intel and TSMC, with Samsung as a distant third. TSMC is frustrated with the tool’s reliability and throughput. Its ACTIS purchases have hit the wall, not to mention the ACTIS A300 failing TSMC’s evaluation. That only leaves Intel, but ACTIS tools have only two use cases: in the mask shop and in production in fabs. The mask shop needs only a few tools, with TSMC and Intel’s shops at a total of a mere 5-6 systems and no additions in ages. In addition, Lasertec’s growth since the introduction of its EUV product has been driven by the industry transition to 5nm. That transition is completed, with 3nm orders delated, per KLA: “...in the past two years it was the population of the N5 node...that was most of it...now it’s N3 and N2...they’re delaying those PO’s.”", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "f5f0c5e0-1d36-41b4-b1fc-ccf73e365f25", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.35, "w": 0.86, "x": 0.07, "y": 0.5 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "A: “Yeah, definitely. It's exactly according to what I said that in the past two years, it was the population of the N5 node from R&D to production [that drove their growth]. All the vendors are now, every fab, they move to production. When they move to production, they bought ASML tool and you know how much Lasertec they bought...s most of those orders are TSMC orders.”\nQ: “You said people moved N5 R&D to production.”\nA: “To production, yeah. And the number of layers for N5 significantly increased. Thirty percent of the layers are EUV.”\nQ: “Have Intel, Samsung, and TSMC already bought all the machines they need for this 5-nanometer transition, or are they still going to be buying a lot more ASML tools and Lasertec tools?”\nA: “No, that was most of it. Now it's N3 and N2 if they want to go; N5 is in production. For the main ones, yeah, they were N3 PO's. Now, they're delaying those PO's for N3, and those PO's will be delayed. That's my projection.”\nQ: “Lasertec's N3 POs will be delayed?”\nA: “Correct.” - Former KLA executive in a leadership role in their EUV mask inspection group", "attrs": null, "subkind": "testimonial", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "b240fc63-4657-45e5-9a44-55d8f1a33bbe", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "“No, that was most of it. Now it's N3 and N2 if they want to go; N5 is in production. For the main ones, yeah, they were N3 PO's. They're delaying those PO's for N3, and those PO's will be delayed. That's my projection.” — Former KLA executive in a leadership role in their EUV mask inspection group", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Authority citation", "toolSlug": "authority-citation", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-78b7-702e-961a-c660ca48b32e", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.3, "x": 0.07, "y": 0.95 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Scorpion Capital consultation calls with experts", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "7b81b9e3-df39-4f45-a3f7-4cae298e91fb", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "name": "authority-citation", "slug": null, "matchId": "22e0e0ce-ac66-44ec-af46-9293706e7ef0", "evidence": "Citing a former KLA executive to validate the thesis.", "confidence": 0.9 } ], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "imagePathAlt": null, "thumbSrc": null, "thumbSrcAlt": null, "locked": true }