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  "documentTitle": "Lasertec Corporation (6920)",
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  "authorName": "Scorpion Capital",
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  "presentationDate": "2024-06-05 00:00:00",
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  "notes": "The slide uses comparative benchmarks (Olympus, Toshiba) to frame the scale of the potential loss.",
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      "text": "All five methods for estimating the amount by which Lasertec is fraudulently valuing inventory – and therefore earnings, as well as the magnitude of the impairment charge it is trying to avoid – arrive at roughly the same figure, one that is devastating and indicates the degree to which its stock price has been based on an illusion: an inevitable 65-70% write-down of its $1.1B / ¥162B of inventory as of Mar '24",
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      "text": "Retained earnings versus impairment charge (JPY millions)",
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      "text": "Net income by year versus impairment charge (JPY millions)",
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      "text": "impairment charge: ~70%",
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      "text": "one that is devastating and indicates the degree to which its stock price has been based on an illusion: an inevitable 65-70% write-down of its $1.1B / ¥162B of inventory as of Mar '24 – a ~$700-750MM / ¥105-113B loss that would wipe out ~70% of its cumulative earnings since the launch of its ACTIS product in late 2019 through the most recent quarter. The charge would also wipe out ~85% of its retained earnings of $832MM / ¥129B, as of the most recent quarter. The loss and retained earnings hit we think is imminent far exceeds what Olympus incurred in 2012 in the immediate aftermath of its scandal (¥49B/$300MM and ¥53B/$460MM, respectively); and is considerable relative to Toshiba’s loss and retained earnings hit of ¥400B/$2.6B and ¥378B/$2.4B in 2014/2016 – a sobering fact given Lasertec is only 3.5% of Toshiba’s revenue of ¥6,300B/$40B at the time",
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      "text": "Source: Scorpion Capital analysis and estimates; Capital IQ data; Lasertec financial filings and IR materials",
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      "text": "All five methods for estimating the amount by which Lasertec is fraudulently valuing inventory – and therefore earnings, as well as the magnitude of the impairment charge it is trying to avoid – arrive at roughly the same figure",
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