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  "documentTitle": "Bunge Global SA (BG)",
  "authorId": "54_Spruce_Point_Capital",
  "authorName": "Ben Axler",
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  "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller",
  "presentationDate": "2026-03-25 00:00:00",
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      "text": "We see approximately 55% – 80% downside risk ($24.50 to $55.85) per share to BG's share price and expect it to underperform the agribusiness industry and equity market.",
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      "text": "downside risk: 55% – 80%",
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      "text": "Bunge insiders have increasingly little equity at risk and have diluted their ownership from 3.7% to 0.6% since March 2020. Meanwhile, Glencore and Canada Pension Plan (“CPP”) who were Viterra’s largest shareholders can start selling 59m or 30% of Bunge’s shares on July 3, 2026. Analysts are already pressing Glencore how it will “get rid” of Bunge stock. British Columbia Investment Management received 6.5m Bunge shares in the transaction but, according to SEC filings, has already liquidated.",
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      "text": "In 2022, Bunge provided a mid-cycle update and outlined its growth framework for base EPS to be ~$11 per share by 2026. Now in 2026, having spent $10.6bn to acquire Viterra and assume $34bn of revenue along with acquiring IFF's soy protein concentrate, lecithin, and soy crush businesses ($240m of revenue), Bunge guided 2026 EPS to be $7.50 – $8.00 per share or ~30% below the previous target. Even more concerning, Bunge would not put in writing the factors expected to impact its business segments in 2026. However, hope springs eternal and now Bunge is outlining a $15+ per share mid-cycle EPS target by 2030 even with Viterra not providing long-term projections according to the proxy statement. There are many steps in the EPS bridge that Bunge must execute perfectly to achieve this target. Notably, over $1.50 per share is tied to Viterra cost, network, and commercial synergies but our analysis indicates they are considerably lower and large agribusiness acquisition synergies often fail to materialize. Employee retention is critically important, and we cannot reconcile over 3,000 employees that have seemingly vanished six months post-closing despite Bunge's claim that headcount reduction was not a critical aspect of the transaction.",
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      "text": "Analysts take Bunge's bait and believe in its ability to execute on its 2030 goals despite previous failures and our mounting evidence that suggests Viterra is an injured business while Bunge's core business also struggles. Sell-side consensus target is $132.25 per share (6.6% upside) and we believe most of the upside from commodity price increases from war disruption and optimism over biodiesel is already priced in. We see little rationale for Bunge's multiple expansion to a 3-year high from Viterra's business which is lower margin, with more volatile and/or impaired results. Given Bunge's immense debt-load, its equity value is highly sensitive to changes in perception of its valuation multiple. Prior the Viterra deal, Bunge's EV / Revenue multiple averaged 0.35x and compressed to a low 0.25x in the preceding six years. We believe growing competition, negative food consumption trends, and challenges faced by Viterra do not merit its recent multiple expansion. We see approximately 55% – 80% downside risk ($24.50 to $55.85) per share to BG's share price and expect it to underperform the agribusiness industry and equity market.",
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      "kind": "title",
      "text": "The March Investor Day promotional event was well-timed with extreme insider selling potential on the near-term horizon:",
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      "text": "We see a poor risk / reward in owning Bunge's shares at the current level:",
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      "text": "We Are Short Bunge Global SA (NYSE: BG) And See Approximately 55% – 80% Potential Downside Risk",
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