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  "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-c6da1f4c0f8e",
  "docSlug": "fab8b03c0201",
  "documentTitle": "DraftKings Inc. (DKNG)",
  "authorId": "54_Spruce_Point_Capital",
  "authorName": "Spruce Point Capital Management",
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  "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller",
  "presentationDate": "2025-10-03 00:00:00",
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      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "We believe the scale of the disruption is already evident.",
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      "kind": "metric",
      "text": "handle: ~$150 billion",
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      "toolName": "Quantification",
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      "text": "We believe the scale of the disruption is already evident. During the first four weeks of the NFL season, Kalshi generated on average $277 million of handle per week. This represents ~30% of the weekly NFL handle that the OSB operators generated during Sept.-Dec. '24. During the first five weeks of the NCAA football season, Kalshi generated on average $187 million of handle per week. This represents ~79% of the weekly NCAA football handle that the OSB operators generated during Sept.-Dec. '24. In five weeks, Kalshi grew its NCAA football handle by 80% and in four weeks grew its NFL handle by 19%. Spruce Point believes the disruption is clear given DKNG's NY sportsbook handle declined 8.9% from Week 3 to Week 4 of the NFL season in '25 vs 8.1% growth in '24. Kalshi grew its NFL and NCAA football handle by 31% in the same week, a widening divergence that highlights Kalshi's potential share capture at DKNG's expense.",
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      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "In 2024, the total handle from the licensed online sportsbooks across 33 reporting markets combined to generate ~$150 billion (DKNG operates in 26 of the 33 states). The state of NY Gaming Commission reports weekly sports wagering by operator and reports the total combined figure. In 2024, NY generated a total of $22.7 billion in sports wagering and from Sept.-Dec. 2024, total weekly sports wagering averaged $513 million per week. We grossed up NY's $513 million per week by 6.6x ($150 billion / $22.7 billion) to get to an estimate for the weekly sports wagering for all 33 reporting markets. During Sept.-Dec. 2024, we estimate $3.4 billion of weekly sports wagers in the 33 reporting markets. The state of CO publishes the monthly amount of sport wagering by sport. From Sept.-Dec. 2024, the NFL and NCAA football games represented on average 27% and 7% of total sport wagering, respectively (excluding parlays). Based on these figures we estimate the 2024 total weekly NFL and NCAA football handle to be ~$914 million and ~$237 million, respectively.",
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      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "Kalshi Appears to Offer Better Odds Than DKNG",
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      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "Kalshi Handle For NFL And NCAA Football Should Be Setting Off the Fire Alarm",
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      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "While investors and sell-side analysts continue to debate the long-term TAM question, Spruce Point has been closely monitoring Kalshi's odds and reported handle. There seems to be a lot of debate around the odds offered on prediction exchanges vs. OSBs. While we acknowledge there are going to be variances, we believe the economics favor Kalshi. We believe on average Kalshi charges just 1–2% per trade, while DKNG builds in an 8–10% vig and further adjusts its odds to protect its book. We believe sportsbook customers consistently shop for better odds. We do not think it will take long for the market to recognize this opportunity and in fact we believe it is already happening.",
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      "text": "Executive Summary",
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      "arcName": "Overcoming the Monster",
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