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  "documentTitle": "DraftKings Inc. (DKNG)",
  "authorId": "54_Spruce_Point_Capital",
  "authorName": "Spruce Point Capital Management",
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  "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller",
  "presentationDate": "2025-10-03 00:00:00",
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  "notes": "The slide uses specific betting examples to demonstrate that as odds become more skewed, the total fee collected per $100 volume decreases.",
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      "text": "Kalshi's realized hold rate could be closer to ~1.5%, not the higher mid-point rates.",
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      "text": "hold rate: ~1.5%",
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      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "Spruce Point believes a significant portion of Kalshi's handle is generated in-game and typically late in the game when probabilities skew toward 10%/90% or 20%/80%, not 50%/50%. The distribution of contracts across odds bands drives fee yield, in-game skewed bets dominate, pulling down the average fee %. Kalshi's realized hold rate could be closer to ~1.5%, not the higher mid-point rates.",
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      "text": "Source Kalshi screen shots.",
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      "text": "Comparison of fee structures for $0.10, $0.20, $0.30, and $0.40 contract odds.",
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      "kind": "title",
      "text": "We Believe In-Game Betting Drives Down Kalshi's Hold Rate",
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