{
  "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-c6da1f4c0f8e",
  "docSlug": "fab8b03c0201",
  "documentTitle": "DraftKings Inc. (DKNG)",
  "authorId": "54_Spruce_Point_Capital",
  "authorName": "Spruce Point Capital Management",
  "documentKindSlug": "activist-deck",
  "documentKindLabel": "Activist deck",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller",
  "presentationDate": "2025-10-03 00:00:00",
  "orientation": "landscape",
  "aspectRatio": 1.3333334,
  "pageNumber": 26,
  "pageCount": 48,
  "prevPage": 25,
  "nextPage": 27,
  "slideType": "scenario_table",
  "function": "quantify_opportunity",
  "density": "dense",
  "nDataPoints": 25,
  "notes": "The table demonstrates that even in the 'Most Conservative' case, Spruce Point projects a revenue miss against consensus.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "headline_text",
    "paragraph",
    "data_table",
    "footnote"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-c6da1f4c0f8e/26",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-c6da1f4c0f8e",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-c6da1f4c0f8e.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-c6da1f4c0f8e#slide-26",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "We believe we have been very conservate by only taking the hold rate down to 7.2% in our most aggressive case.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Visual emphasis",
      "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd953-78b7-702e-962b-f5c79adad6f1",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "metric",
      "text": "Miss Over Consensus: -32.2%",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": "Quantification",
      "toolSlug": "quantification",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd953-78b7-702e-962b-f8f087bfbab2",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.1,
        "w": 0.9,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.17
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "DKNG's hold rate is the big driver for these assumptions. Over the last six quarters DNKG's hold rate averaged 6.6%. We acknowledge parlays and promotional mix drove the hold rate to 8.7% in Q2' 25 but we do not expect that to be the norm. We believe we have been very conservate by only taking the hold rate down to 7.2% in our most aggressive case.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "643d1654-2928-4ccf-96f9-0631bf574f9e",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.03,
        "w": 0.2,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.95
      },
      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "Note: See previous slide for assumptions.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "f8632e38-5c97-4c14-839c-e51bc8583757",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.6,
        "w": 0.9,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.3
      },
      "kind": "table",
      "text": "Scenario analysis table with columns: Spruce Point Case, Net Handle Kalshi Takes Away from DKNG Sportsbook, DKNG iGaming Growth YoY, DKNG Other Growth YoY, Hold Rate, Miss Over Consensus",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "scenario",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "9d564f3e-7310-4d23-b52d-c690b808df25",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.08,
        "w": 0.65,
        "x": 0.3,
        "y": 0.05
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Spruce Point Believes DKNG's 2026 Consensus Revenue Estimates Are Extremely Aggressive (Cont'd)",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "9298c2b4-2e30-4a3d-a68d-2c2799ec349c",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [
    {
      "name": "Scenario Analysis",
      "slug": "scenario-analysis",
      "agent": null,
      "layer": "slide",
      "matchId": "43c5bd73-4eac-41d0-b828-ec7831d794f0",
      "evidence": "Scenario analysis table with columns: Spruce Point Case, Net Handle Kalshi Takes Away from DKNG Sportsbook, DKNG iGaming Growth YoY, DKNG Other Growth YoY, Hold Rate, Miss Over Consensus",
      "confidence": 0.8
    }
  ],
  "frameworks": [],
  "arcBeats": [
    {
      "to": 36,
      "from": 21,
      "beatId": "a1f273fe-b0d3-4fa9-9220-3fd4db79ea3c",
      "arcName": "Overcoming the Monster",
      "arcSlug": "overcoming-monster",
      "beatName": "The Victory",
      "beatSlug": "overcoming-monster-the-victory",
      "evidence": "Conclusion that DKNG's share price will decline",
      "position": 2,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "parentBeatName": "Turn",
      "parentBeatSlug": "turn"
    }
  ],
  "loops": [
    {
      "to": 30,
      "from": 21,
      "name": "Zoom In",
      "slug": "06-zoom-in",
      "bestFor": "Technical deep-dives, case studies, detailed analysis",
      "matchId": "49d99ab9-43c1-421b-a5bc-e4a686ad16c3",
      "evidence": "Detailed comparison of Kalshi and DKNG's performance",
      "position": 1,
      "objective": "How does Kalshi's performance compare to DKNG's?",
      "structure": "The Big Picture -> Key Area of Focus -> Specific Detail -> Implication",
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "description": "Start broad, then progressively focus on specific details that prove your point"
    }
  ],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}