{
  "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-c6da1f4c0f8e",
  "docSlug": "fab8b03c0201",
  "documentTitle": "DraftKings Inc. (DKNG)",
  "authorId": "54_Spruce_Point_Capital",
  "authorName": "Spruce Point Capital Management",
  "documentKindSlug": "activist-deck",
  "documentKindLabel": "Activist deck",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller",
  "presentationDate": "2025-10-03 00:00:00",
  "orientation": "landscape",
  "aspectRatio": 1.3333334,
  "pageNumber": 25,
  "pageCount": 48,
  "prevPage": 24,
  "nextPage": 26,
  "slideType": "revenue_buildup",
  "function": "quantify_opportunity",
  "density": "balanced",
  "nDataPoints": 14,
  "notes": "The slide uses a structured table to demonstrate the impact of Kalshi on DKNG's sportsbook handle and subsequent revenue.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "headline_text",
    "callout_box",
    "data_table"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-c6da1f4c0f8e/25",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-c6da1f4c0f8e",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-c6da1f4c0f8e.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-c6da1f4c0f8e#slide-25",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.08,
        "w": 0.96,
        "x": 0.02,
        "y": 0.17
      },
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Spruce Point believes our assumptions are conservative given there is a good chance the state litigation ends up at SCOTUS, allowing Kalshi to operate at least through 2026. In our base case, we estimate DraftKings risks missing 2026 revenue by ~15.0%. A sensitivity analysis is shown on the next page.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "0f76a2d2-36c9-4e7c-8168-878b1f3cbfc0",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Spruce Point believes our assumptions are conservative given there is a good chance the state litigation ends up at SCOTUS, allowing Kalshi to operate at least through 2026. In our base case, we estimate DraftKings risks missing 2026 revenue by ~15.0%.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Visual emphasis",
      "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd953-78b7-702e-962c-1329a37e82f8",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "metric",
      "text": "2026 Revenue: ~15.0%",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": "Quantification",
      "toolSlug": "quantification",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd953-78b7-702e-962c-1671d0f3e3ff",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.65,
        "w": 0.96,
        "x": 0.02,
        "y": 0.27
      },
      "kind": "table",
      "text": "Step-by-step revenue buildup table showing consensus handle, Kalshi impact, hold rate conversion, iGaming/Other growth, and final comparison to street consensus.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "data",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "a2482598-f09c-4f5d-9eeb-23d93d1b2e00",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.08,
        "w": 0.68,
        "x": 0.28,
        "y": 0.03
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Spruce Point Believes DKNG's 2026 Consensus Revenue Estimates Are Extremely Aggressive",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "c0d1d2c2-97b7-40c6-a0e6-24c7907dcc3b",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [
    {
      "name": "Waterfall chart",
      "slug": "waterfall-chart",
      "agent": null,
      "layer": "slide",
      "matchId": "8bc618b1-4eb4-4c27-bb35-b8cb46d41956",
      "evidence": "Step-by-step revenue buildup table showing consensus handle, Kalshi impact, hold rate conversion, iGaming/Other growth, and final comparison to street consensus.",
      "confidence": 0.7
    }
  ],
  "frameworks": [
    {
      "name": "revenue-buildup",
      "slug": null,
      "matchId": "c00e1537-065c-40ff-83b8-6b6b600fdf40",
      "evidence": "The slide explicitly breaks down revenue into components (sportsbook, iGaming, other) and applies adjustments to reach a final estimate.",
      "confidence": 1
    }
  ],
  "arcBeats": [
    {
      "to": 36,
      "from": 21,
      "beatId": "a1f273fe-b0d3-4fa9-9220-3fd4db79ea3c",
      "arcName": "Overcoming the Monster",
      "arcSlug": "overcoming-monster",
      "beatName": "The Victory",
      "beatSlug": "overcoming-monster-the-victory",
      "evidence": "Conclusion that DKNG's share price will decline",
      "position": 2,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "parentBeatName": "Turn",
      "parentBeatSlug": "turn"
    }
  ],
  "loops": [
    {
      "to": 30,
      "from": 21,
      "name": "Zoom In",
      "slug": "06-zoom-in",
      "bestFor": "Technical deep-dives, case studies, detailed analysis",
      "matchId": "49d99ab9-43c1-421b-a5bc-e4a686ad16c3",
      "evidence": "Detailed comparison of Kalshi and DKNG's performance",
      "position": 1,
      "objective": "How does Kalshi's performance compare to DKNG's?",
      "structure": "The Big Picture -> Key Area of Focus -> Specific Detail -> Implication",
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "description": "Start broad, then progressively focus on specific details that prove your point"
    }
  ],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}