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  "docSlug": "fab8b03c0201",
  "documentTitle": "DraftKings Inc. (DKNG)",
  "authorId": "54_Spruce_Point_Capital",
  "authorName": "Spruce Point Capital Management",
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  "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller",
  "presentationDate": "2025-10-03 00:00:00",
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  "pageNumber": 23,
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  "slideType": "revenue_buildup",
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  "nDataPoints": 32,
  "notes": "The slide uses a bottom-up adjustment to consensus estimates based on observed handle impact from prediction markets.",
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      "text": "Conservatively we estimate DKNG could potentially miss full year '25 consensus revenue estimates by 6.2%.",
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      "text": "revenue miss: 6.2%",
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      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "Spruce Point adjusted DKNG's Q3 '25 and Q4 '25 handle based upon Kalshi's handle for the first few weeks of the 2025 NFL and NCAA football seasons. We assume all of DKNG's sportsbook handle is affected except the parlay book of business. Conservatively we estimate DKNG could potentially miss full year '25 consensus revenue estimates by 6.2%. We also illustrate a sensitivity analysis on the next page.",
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      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "Notes: (1) DKNG handle only affected for one month (22.2%*.33). (2) See all assumptions in Appendix.",
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      "kind": "table",
      "text": "Q1/Q2 actuals and Q3/Q4 estimates for DKNG revenue components",
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      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Spruce Point Believes Sports Prediction Exchanges Will Take Significant Market Share",
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      "arcName": "Overcoming the Monster",
      "arcSlug": "overcoming-monster",
      "beatName": "The Victory",
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      "evidence": "Conclusion that DKNG's share price will decline",
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      "evidence": "Detailed comparison of Kalshi and DKNG's performance",
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