{
  "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-c6da1f4c0f8e",
  "docSlug": "fab8b03c0201",
  "documentTitle": "DraftKings Inc. (DKNG)",
  "authorId": "54_Spruce_Point_Capital",
  "authorName": "Spruce Point Capital Management",
  "documentKindSlug": "activist-deck",
  "documentKindLabel": "Activist deck",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller",
  "presentationDate": "2025-10-03 00:00:00",
  "orientation": "landscape",
  "aspectRatio": 1.3333334,
  "pageNumber": 19,
  "pageCount": 48,
  "prevPage": 18,
  "nextPage": 20,
  "slideType": "comparison_table",
  "function": "compare_peers",
  "density": "dense",
  "nDataPoints": 5,
  "notes": "The slide uses a stacked bar chart for the OSB side and a single bar for Kalshi to imply an outsized market share.",
  "elementsJson": [
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  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-c6da1f4c0f8e/19",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-c6da1f4c0f8e",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-c6da1f4c0f8e.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-c6da1f4c0f8e#slide-19",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "This represents ~79% of the weekly NCAA football handle that the OSB operators generated during Sept.-Dec. ‘24.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Visual emphasis",
      "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis",
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    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.5,
        "w": 0.8,
        "x": 0.1,
        "y": 0.35
      },
      "kind": "chart",
      "text": "OSBs vs. Kalshi Week 1 – 5 NCAA Football Handle ($ in millions)",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bar-stacked",
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      "componentId": "176a1ae4-c380-4c62-a7c7-93a5330ea96a",
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    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "metric",
      "text": "weekly handle: $187 million",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": "Quantification",
      "toolSlug": "quantification",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd953-78b7-702e-962b-2b6ba6245f41",
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        "h": 0.12,
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      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "In 2024, we estimate U.S. OSB operators averaged $3.4 billion in weekly handle across all sports during the football season. We estimate NCAA football, excluding parlays, accounted for $237 million per week (7% of total). On average Kalshi generated $187 million of handle per week in the first five weeks of the 2025 NCAA football season. This represents ~79% of the weekly NCAA football handle that the OSB operators generated during Sept.-Dec. '24.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
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      },
      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "Source: Screen shots of handle in Appendix. We assume $150 billion OSB market across 33 reporting markets. NY Gaming Commission reports weekly sports wagering and CO monthly sport wagering.",
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      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Kalshi Week 1 – 5 NCAA Football Handle Should Set Off The Fire Alarm",
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  "metrics": [],
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  "frameworks": [
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      "name": "comparison_frame",
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      "matchId": "b845fc3a-0e94-404b-ad10-95683c432326",
      "evidence": "Direct visual comparison of two market segments to imply anomaly.",
      "confidence": 0.8
    }
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  "arcBeats": [
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      "beatId": "4e1c17fc-d0a4-422f-b00f-a3e72a45a04a",
      "arcName": "Overcoming the Monster",
      "arcSlug": "overcoming-monster",
      "beatName": "The Struggle",
      "beatSlug": "overcoming-monster-the-struggle",
      "evidence": "Detailed analysis of Kalshi's advantages and DKNG's challenges",
      "position": 1,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "parentBeatName": "Development",
      "parentBeatSlug": "development"
    }
  ],
  "loops": [
    {
      "to": 20,
      "from": 10,
      "name": "Cost Of Inaction",
      "slug": "27-cost-of-inaction",
      "bestFor": "Urgent budget requests, compliance, risk mitigation",
      "matchId": "1fe3f2db-9941-4d09-8a4b-bb2e75d91db2",
      "evidence": "Discussion of potential downside risk for DKNG investors",
      "position": 0,
      "objective": "What is the cost of inaction for DKNG investors?",
      "structure": "The Status Quo -> The Hidden Costs Accumulating -> The Future State of Inaction -> The Tipping Point",
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "description": "Quantify what happens if the audience does nothing"
    }
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}