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  "documentTitle": "DraftKings Inc. (DKNG)",
  "authorId": "54_Spruce_Point_Capital",
  "authorName": "Spruce Point Capital Management",
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  "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller",
  "presentationDate": "2025-10-03 00:00:00",
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  "notes": "Includes a screenshot of the Kalshi orderbook interface.",
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      "text": "We believe sports prediction exchanges have structurally better odds. Prediction exchanges do not set the odds, users do. We believe Kalshi only charges ~1.5% on average to users per trade vs. the 8–10% DKNG margin.",
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      "text": "Kalshi orderbook interface",
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      "kind": "list",
      "text": "Kalshi doesn't set odds, users do; Prices move on supply and demand via the Orderbook; We believe Kalshi only charges ~1.5% on average to users per trade",
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      "kind": "list",
      "text": "Probability: DKNG's internal model; Vig (Margin): Built-in markup; Book Risk Adjustment: Tweaks based on money flow; Simple Example; Final hold rate: 6-8%",
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      "text": "sportsbook net revenue margin: 1.5%",
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      "text": "We believe sports prediction exchanges have structurally better odds. Prediction exchanges do not set the odds, users do. We believe Kalshi only charges ~1.5% on average to users per trade vs. the 8–10% DKNG margin. If DKNG eventually competes against sport prediction exchanges Spruce Point believes it will pressure DKNG's sportsbook net revenue margin or hold rate.",
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      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "Source: Kalshi app on August 20th. What Are True Odds in +EV Betting? Understanding Probability (OddsShopper, April 26 2025); Kalshi fee schedule, Sept 2025; InGame Analytics May 2025.",
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      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Spruce Point Believes Kalshi Has Structurally Better Odds",
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      "evidence": "Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and DKNG pricing models",
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      "name": "Cost Of Inaction",
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      "evidence": "Discussion of potential downside risk for DKNG investors",
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      "structure": "The Status Quo -> The Hidden Costs Accumulating -> The Future State of Inaction -> The Tipping Point",
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      "description": "Quantify what happens if the audience does nothing"
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