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  "docSlug": "aeaf881b8cf7",
  "documentTitle": "Construction Partners, Inc. (ROAD)",
  "authorId": "54_Spruce_Point_Capital",
  "authorName": "Spruce Point Capital Management",
  "documentKindSlug": "activist-deck",
  "documentKindLabel": "Activist deck",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller",
  "presentationDate": "2025-01-23 00:00:00",
  "orientation": "landscape",
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  "pageNumber": 47,
  "pageCount": 70,
  "prevPage": 46,
  "nextPage": 48,
  "slideType": "expose_contradiction",
  "function": "expose_contradiction",
  "density": "dense",
  "nDataPoints": 12,
  "notes": "Uses a red arrow to highlight the margin discrepancy between the two presentations.",
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  "metadataConfidence": 1,
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  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-a016b8cafb9e/47",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-a016b8cafb9e",
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  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-a016b8cafb9e#slide-47",
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      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Lone Star’s Adj. EBITDA margins are set to decline in FY25 by 150bps and the fine print disclaimer around the projected margin gives us considerable hesitation in believing they can be achieved. These projections are from October 2024, and we present further evidence in the next two slides about margin concerns.",
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      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Lone Star's Adj. EBITDA margins are set to decline in FY25 by 150bps and the fine print disclaimer around the projected margin gives us considerable hesitation in believing they can be achieved.",
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      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Visual emphasis",
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        "x": 0.55,
        "y": 0.72
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      "kind": "chart",
      "text": "Revenue Mix: 47% Private, 40% TxDOT, 13% Municipalities",
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      "text": "EBITDA margin: 24.1%",
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      "toolSlug": "quantification",
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      "componentId": "019dd953-25b4-767c-9bf5-20e684000f3a",
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      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "Source: Lender Presentation, Public Presentation, Red emphasis Spruce Point",
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      "kind": "table",
      "text": "Public Presentation (Projected EBITDA) metrics including $530mm Revenue, $120mm EBITDA, 22.6% Margin, $660mm Backlog, 10 HMA Plants, 4 Aggregate Facilities, 1 Liquid Asphalt Terminal",
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      "kind": "table",
      "text": "Confidential Lender Presentation (LTM EBITDA) metrics including $466mm Revenue, $112mm EBITDA, 24.1% Margin, 10 HMA Plants, 4 Aggregate Facilities, 1 Liquid Asphalt Terminal",
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      "kind": "title",
      "text": "We Lack Conviction In LSP’s Margin Outlook",
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      "evidence": "Comparing public vs private disclosures to highlight misleading projections",
      "confidence": 0.9
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  "loops": [
    {
      "to": 49,
      "from": 42,
      "name": "Analogy",
      "slug": "08-analogy",
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      "evidence": "The deck presents a peer benchmark analysis suggesting that LSP's margins are average and its conversion has been declining.",
      "position": 3,
      "objective": "How does ROAD's acquisition of Lone Star Paving compare to industry benchmarks?",
      "structure": "The Familiar Domain -> Key Parallel -> Applied to Our Situation -> Insight",
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