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  "documentTitle": "Intuit Inc. (INTU)",
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  "authorName": "Ben Axler",
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  "presentationDate": "2024-09-20 00:00:00",
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  "notes": "Uses two tables to contrast derived Live metrics with disclosed ARPR data to build a case for weak pricing leverage.",
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      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "According to Morgan Stanley research, historical list prices for the Deluxe, Premium, and Self-Employed Online SKUs rose at 15%, 17%, and 9% CAGRs from 2020 to 2024 versus just 7% for Live.",
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      "text": "How can TurboTax disclosed Paying ARPR only increase 7% from 2020 to 2023 when (1) Online and Live average list prices rose 10% and 9%, (2) Intuit launched the highest ASP Full Service offering in 2021, and (3) we estimate that higher list ASP Live as a percent of total paying returns grew from 7% to 18% over the same period. We believe this suggests weak price realization.",
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      "text": "ASP growth: 7%",
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      "text": "We have attempted to derive TurboTax Live revenue, returns, and ASPs from Intuit's sporadic disclosures. One key observation is that our derived ASPs for Live have grown at only a 7% CAGR since 2020.",
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      "text": "According to Morgan Stanley research, historical list prices for the Deluxe, Premium, and Self-Employed Online SKUs rose at 15%, 17%, and 9% CAGRs from 2020 to 2024 versus just 7% for Live. — Morgan Stanley",
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      "text": "Source: Intuit earnings call transcripts, earnings press releases, and investor day presentations, Morgan Stanley research dated 8/14/24, and Spruce Point Research",
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      "text": "Spruce Point Derivation of TurboTax Live Metrics Based on Company Disclosures",
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      "text": "We Question Intuit's Disclosed TurboTax Paying ARPR",
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      "kind": "title",
      "text": "We Believe TurboTax Live Pricing Leverage Has Disappointed",
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