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  "documentTitle": "Intuit Inc. (INTU)",
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  "notes": "Uses expert testimony from Tegus to frame Credit Karma as a cyclical 'digital direct mail' business.",
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      "text": "Credit Karma Revenue is Highly Sensitive to Consumer Credit Cycles",
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      "text": "A major source of past revenue is unlikely to return to past levels.",
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      "text": "Upstart Non-GAAP S&M Expense: 64%",
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      "text": "We marvel that the market is willing to ascribe an 11x multiple to Credit Karma revenue, which is clearly of much lower quality than that of core Intuit.",
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      "text": "There was hope Credit Karma could be a significant lever. I don't see that happening. I think Credit Karma has been pretty average...",
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      "text": "So I think of Credit Karma as digital direct mail... If direct mail volume is going up or going down, you can assume that Credit Karma is probably correlated with that volume.",
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      "text": "If soft pulls go down, you can assume that there is less loan volume, less cards being issued, which would impact Credit Karma's revenue.",
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      "kind": "quote",
      "text": "the preponderance of revenue on the loan side comes from [fintechs]... I think they've reported as much as 50-plus percent of their origination volume comes from Credit Karma.",
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      "text": "Credit Karma is functionally the first derivative of consumer financial services. And as we know, consumer financial services are cyclical.",
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      "text": "\"the preponderance of revenue on the loan side comes from [fintechs]...I mean, if you look at Upstart, I think they've reported as much as 50-plus percent of their origination volume comes from Credit Karma.\" — Former Director at Intuit, Tegus, 8/2/22",
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      "text": "Source: Tegus, S&P Capital IQ, Spruce Point Research",
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