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  "documentTitle": "Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. (FND)",
  "authorId": "54_Spruce_Point_Capital",
  "authorName": "Spruce Point Capital Management",
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  "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller",
  "presentationDate": "2024-07-01 00:00:00",
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  "pageNumber": 37,
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  "notes": "The slide highlights a pattern of management failing to meet its own capex guidance, suggesting poor business control.",
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      "text": "We find that since providing capex guidance in 2016, FND has cumulatively underspent by ~$330 million vs. forecast.",
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      "text": "Capex underspend: $329.4 million",
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      "text": "We consistently warn that persistent capex misforecasts, at the very least, shows that management has a poor handle on its business, may lack accretive investment opportunities, and is often an indicator of future disappointment. We find that since providing capex guidance in 2016, FND has cumulatively underspent by ~$330 million vs. forecast. Only a small portion of the variance is explained from COVID-19 when FND opened 11 fewer stores than planned. Overall, FND has opened ~13 fewer stores than projected since 2016. At its 2022 Investor Day, FND said capex (net of tenant allowances) per new store was approximately $6.2-$8.2 million. We estimate ~$81-$107 of the $330 million total underspending relates to new store openings.",
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      "text": "Source: FND SEC filings, 2022 Investor Day Presentation. Note: Initial capex guidance at start of year",
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      "text": "Analysis of FND's Capital Spending Relative To Forecast",
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      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Persistent Capex Misforecasts Often A Harbinger of Major Problems",
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      "arcName": "Overcoming the Monster",
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