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  "documentTitle": "Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. (FND)",
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  "presentationDate": "2024-07-01 00:00:00",
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  "notes": "The slide uses a bar chart to contrast FND's peers against a Pool Corp warning callout to argue that FND's growth targets are unrealistic.",
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      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Pool Corp Warning, June 24, 2024: \"The discretionary components of our business... have been challenged... remodeling activity for 2024 may be down as much as 15% compared to our previous estimate of flat to down 10% compared to 2023.\"",
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      "text": "Spruce Point believes that FND investor expectations are wildly optimistic heading into 2025.",
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      "text": "2025E Revenue Growth, Home Improvement And Product Peers",
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      "text": "Spruce Point believes that FND investor expectations are wildly optimistic heading into 2025. Pool Corp's (Nasdaq: POOL) recent warning about a decline in remodeling activity which may also be a leading indicator for FND since it also sells pool tiles. We believe the Street's biggest disconnect is believing that, 1) CSS will improve to 5% and that 2) New store openings will perform in-line with its $14-$16 million guidance which has not been revised in over 2 years. FND does not cleanly disclose revenue from new stores, but we estimate that in 2023 revenue per new store was $12.4 million. Because stores are being opened in progressively lower income areas, we expect this figure to decline in 2024.",
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      "text": "The discretionary components of our business, which are the most affected by general economic conditions, have been challenged by cautious consumer spending on big ticket items like swimming pools and outdoor living projects resulting in sales of building materials declining 11% for the year compared to the same period in 2023. We now believe that new pool units could be down 15% to 20% in 2024, and remodeling activity for 2024 may be down as much as 15% compared to our previous estimate of flat to down 10% compared to 2023. — Pool Corp Press Release",
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      "text": "Source: Bloomberg consensus, Spruce Point research, Pool Corp Press Release",
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      "kind": "title",
      "text": "We Think The Market's Sales Expectations Appear Too Rosy",
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