{ "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-74af5c9e9edb", "docSlug": "de028a1085e6", "documentTitle": "Zillow Group, Inc. (Z)", "authorId": "54_Spruce_Point_Capital", "authorName": "Spruce Point Capital Management", "documentKindSlug": "activist-deck", "documentKindLabel": "Activist deck", "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller", "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller", "presentationDate": "2024-03-05 00:00:00", "orientation": "landscape", "aspectRatio": 1.3333334, "pageNumber": 47, "pageCount": 103, "prevPage": 46, "nextPage": 48, "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "function": "expose_contradiction", "density": "overcrowded", "nDataPoints": 1, "notes": "Uses a testimonial to contradict the company's narrative or highlight the financial risk of the transition.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "comparison_table", "callout_box", "footnote" ], "metadataConfidence": 0.95, "imagePath": null, "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-74af5c9e9edb/47", "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-74af5c9e9edb", "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-74af5c9e9edb.json", "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-74af5c9e9edb#slide-47", "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Under Flex, Zillow only gets paid if leads convert. If there are no transactions, Zillow's Flex revenue is theoretically zero.", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Visual emphasis", "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-3f42-76f3-adc9-a5d001ee532a", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Zillow's Flex model was introduced in late 2018; our diligence indicates Flex was introduced because MBP became increasingly saturated. We believe the Flex model represents a material change to Zillow's revenue model and carries significant risks and potential earnings volatility.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "f4b2d233-249c-4866-8272-b144b7cb5661", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.82, "x": 0.15, "y": 0.68 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "Plus I think they don't want to make the whole switch over all at once. That would be a financial blowback to them. Because to answer your question on the dynamics in the beginning with Flex, it was a big win-win for me. I stopped paying $50,000 a month out of my account in exchange for only closing four or five deals a month with them. And if you ran the numbers on that, I mean I was really winning on that in the beginning.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "testimonial", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "119f3344-9466-491a-b83d-3552a1b6cc81", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "Plus I think they don't want to make the whole switch over all at once. That would be a financial blowback to them. Because to answer your question on the dynamics in the beginning with Flex, it was a big win-win for me. I stopped paying $50,000 a month out of my account in exchange for only closing four or five deals a month with them. And if you ran the numbers on that, I mean I was really winning on that in the beginning. Now it's pretty, even now I'm probably paying close to 50 grand a month of referral fees and it seems to be kind of on par with what they're looking for and they're getting opportunities sent to their lender and we were sending deals to their title company when they had that around as well. So they were getting the win multiple times. — Zillow Flex Agent", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Authority citation", "toolSlug": "authority-citation", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd953-3f42-76f3-adc9-a9d6cbd81944", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.2, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.96 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Spruce Point Interview", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "fc542d01-c693-4c40-9e01-da83c97b060a", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.27 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Risk Dynamic From Changing Market-Based Pricing (MBP) To Flex and Enhanced Market", "attrs": null, "subkind": "data", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "0cccd203-3a48-487e-8efd-70cb29792651", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.35, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.55 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Research Interview", "attrs": null, "subkind": "data", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "b2ae8fbe-1efe-415b-a01f-011ca544f377", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.6, "x": 0.31, "y": 0.05 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Flex Model Brings Volatility To Zillow", "attrs": null, "subkind": "headline", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "d8057d2b-f5ee-4af5-b60b-096a37f43501", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "name": "fraud-exposure", "slug": null, "matchId": "6914b428-7d66-41e2-af7a-cd2cc565c129", "evidence": "Uses interview testimony to highlight financial risk and potential revenue volatility.", "confidence": 0.8 } ], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 50, "from": 21, "beatId": "2825f36d-3055-4526-b439-677abc0e48a8", "arcName": "Overcoming the Monster", "arcSlug": "overcoming-monster", "beatName": "Evidence", "beatSlug": "evidence", "evidence": "The document presents evidence to support Spruce Point's claims, including data on Zillow's declining site traffic and revenue per visit.", "position": 2, "confidence": 0.8, "parentBeatName": null, "parentBeatSlug": null } ], "loops": [], "imagePathAlt": null, "thumbSrc": null, "thumbSrcAlt": null, "locked": true }