{
  "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-74af5c9e9edb",
  "docSlug": "de028a1085e6",
  "documentTitle": "Zillow Group, Inc. (Z)",
  "authorId": "54_Spruce_Point_Capital",
  "authorName": "Spruce Point Capital Management",
  "documentKindSlug": "activist-deck",
  "documentKindLabel": "Activist deck",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller",
  "presentationDate": "2024-03-05 00:00:00",
  "orientation": "landscape",
  "aspectRatio": 1.3333334,
  "pageNumber": 101,
  "pageCount": 103,
  "prevPage": 100,
  "nextPage": 102,
  "slideType": "revenue_buildup",
  "function": "quantify_opportunity",
  "density": "balanced",
  "nDataPoints": 100,
  "notes": "The table includes a detailed reconciliation from Adjusted EBITDA to Free Cash Flow.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "headline_text",
    "callout_box",
    "data_table",
    "footnote"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-74af5c9e9edb/101",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-74af5c9e9edb",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-74af5c9e9edb.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-74af5c9e9edb#slide-101",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.095,
        "w": 0.98,
        "x": 0.01,
        "y": 0.168
      },
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "We believe it will be difficult for Zillow to grow as long as its Premier Agent business is in decline. Our estimates for 2024 assume continued weakness in Premier Agent offset by strong gains in its Rentals business paired with a comparable operating expense structure to 2023. Based on these estimates, we believe Zillow could produce $200 to $260 million of free cash flow in 2024.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "d300b1ac-4206-444e-8593-598038336767",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "metric",
      "text": "Free Cash Flow: $257.7",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": "Quantification",
      "toolSlug": "quantification",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd953-536f-7579-baa9-97a9e3886237",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.02,
        "w": 0.31,
        "x": 0.01,
        "y": 0.975
      },
      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "Source: Zillow financials and Spruce Point estimates",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "7bd41052-b5bd-48ac-acac-e25a9941e170",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.66,
        "w": 0.91,
        "x": 0.08,
        "y": 0.285
      },
      "kind": "table",
      "text": "Financial model table with rows for Revenue, Growth, EBITDA, and FCF reconciliation across 2021-2024E.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "data",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "3a97b997-0a6d-469b-8125-7a43d1f5a76e",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.035,
        "w": 0.324,
        "x": 0.338,
        "y": 0.055
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Spruce Point's 2024E Model",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "37dd79fa-d045-4292-988a-b476d6e0f265",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [],
  "frameworks": [],
  "arcBeats": [
    {
      "to": 103,
      "from": 98,
      "beatId": "8ac32200-c17a-4d8b-98ed-e16b4141bb17",
      "arcName": "Overcoming the Monster",
      "arcSlug": "overcoming-monster",
      "beatName": "The Victory",
      "beatSlug": null,
      "evidence": "The document concludes with a predicted victory for Spruce Point's short thesis, with a 40-60% downside risk to Zillow's stock price.",
      "position": 4,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "parentBeatName": null,
      "parentBeatSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "loops": [],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}